Asia Pacific tonnages rebound as stability returns to some markets

Airfreight volumes across Asia Pacific recorded a sharp rebound in mid-May, rising 11% week on week after the seasonal disruption caused by early May holidays in several key Asian markets. The recovery helped push global air cargo tonnages up by 3% week on week and 2% year on year, according to the latest data from WorldACD Market Data. 
The rebound in Asia Pacific effectively reversed the previous week’s holiday-driven decline and returned volumes to levels seen before the Labor Day and regional holiday slowdown across China, Japan and South Korea. The +11% weekly increase mirrored the same recovery pattern observed during the equivalent period last year. 
At the same time, other major regions experienced mild declines. Central and South America saw a 5% drop in volumes week on week, North America also fell by 5%, and Europe declined by 3%, largely due to the end of seasonal flower exports tied to Mother’s Day demand in North America and reduced activity during Ascension Day holidays in Europe. Middle East and South Asia was the only other region to post growth, with a modest 1% increase. 
The strong Asian rebound was the main driver behind the overall global increase, lifting worldwide tonnages while highlighting the continued regional volatility in air cargo flows. 
Global spot rates were steady at $3.67 per kilo, with higher volumes having no impact, pointing to a relatively balanced market environment. Overall market rates, which include both spot and contract pricing, increased by 1% to $3.23 per kilo, supported mainly by a 2% rise in contract rates, particularly from North America. 
Capacity across the global air cargo market edged up by 1% week on week, with increases in Asia Pacific (+3%) and Middle East and South Asia (+2%) offsetting declines in Central and South America (-5%) and Africa (-2%). However, compared with pre-conflict levels earlier in the year, global capacity remains around 6% lower. 
The most significant constraint continues to be concentrated in the Middle East and South Asia region, where overall capacity is down approximately 32% compared with pre-conflict conditions. Within this, Gulf capacity remains nearly 50% below previous levels, despite a smaller 9% decline in South Asia. 
Efforts by Gulf carriers to restore capacity were disrupted following renewed security incidents in the region, including drone strikes reported earlier in May in the UAE, which contributed to a pause in planned capacity increases. 
On the cost side, jet fuel prices have eased significantly in recent weeks, falling to around $162 per barrel compared with a peak of $209 per barrel in early April. The 20% fall has eased the cost burden on airlines and lowered the risk of additional fuel-led rate increases. 
However, jet fuel prices are still approximately 80% higher year on year, and supply constraints continue to exist in some markets, leading to some service cancellations at times and a slower pace of capacity recovery in affected markets.