Tariff costs for U.S. companies have eased from the highs reached last year, but they remain far above the levels recorded before 2025, according to a new analysis from the JPMorganChase Institute.
The institute’s latest report, released last week, examines the impact of continued tariff pressure on midsized companies and tracks their customs duty payments using proprietary bank transaction data. The analysis sets October 2024 as a baseline of 100 for its tariff payment index.
From that starting point, the index climbed sharply, reaching 314 in October 2025. It subsequently declined to 201 by May 2026, suggesting some moderation in tariff payments during the first part of this year.
That decline, however, has not continued. In June, the latest month for which data is available, the index rose again to 222. Despite the pullback from last year’s peak, customs duty payments remained more than twice their pre-2025 level.
The pressure is also widespread across the economy. JPMorganChase’s analysis found that tariffs have increased across every industry since April 2, 2025, when the Trump administration announced a broad new tariff regime.
Among the industries examined, apparel manufacturing recorded the highest tariff burden. Tariffs represented approximately 3.3% of inflows between April 2023 and March 2024. That share increased to 5.2% between April 2025 and March 2026.
Entry Fees
Tariff burden, the share of company inflows spent on tariffs for selected U.S. industries, April 2023 through March 2024 compared with April 2025 through March 2026.
manufacturing
Chart: CFO.com
The impact is particularly significant for midsized companies, which are the main focus of the JPMorganChase report. These businesses are generally more vulnerable to changes in trade policy than large multinational corporations because they have less purchasing power, tighter profit margins and fewer capital resources.
The report also points out that midsized companies are frequently underrepresented in policy discussions, even though they account for a significant portion of the public sector.
For the purposes of the analysis, JPMorganChase defines a midsized company as one generating between $10 million and $1 billion in annual revenue or employing between 50 and 499 people.
How the tariff cost reaches companies
U.S. companies that bring in goods from other countries are required by law to pay the applicable duties to the federal government. For example, if an imported shipment of $200,000 is taxed at 25%, the importing company will have to pay the government $50,000.
Then there are a number of things businesses can do with that extra cost. They can eat the tariff and keep prices steady, pass the cost on to customers through higher prices, or reduce international buying while increasing purchases from U.S. suppliers.
Government revenue from tariffs also reflects the changing trade landscape. Monthly tariff revenue peaked at $34 billion in October 2025, according to the U.S. Monthly Treasury Statement, before dropping to $23.7 billion in June 2026.
Tariff increases have weighed on the sector, but so far international payments by midsized U.S. companies have been relatively resilient. Payments to foreign counterparties have grown at a rate just below that of payments to domestic counterparties since 2025, a persistent gap of 6 to 12 percentage points, JPMorganChase said.
That continuing stability in international outflows may suggest companies are taking a wait-and-see approach rather than immediately restructuring their supply chains.
JPMorganChase said the trend suggests mid-sized firms may be waiting to make big strategic supply-chain decisions until they get a clearer idea of where U.S. trade policy is headed.
