By Maria Kalamatas | May 12, 2025
Suez —
What began as a regional disruption has turned into a global realignment.
Six months after the first major shipping lines began diverting vessels away from the Red Sea, container flows around the world have shifted in ways that few anticipated—and that may not reverse anytime soon.
“We’re not treating it like a temporary event anymore,” said a Europe-based fleet director. “It’s the new default.”
Normally, the Suez Canal handles around 12% of global trade and over a fifth of all container traffic. But since late 2024, escalating tensions and targeted attacks have forced carriers to take the longer route around the Cape of Good Hope. The result: extra fuel burn, extended transit times, and pressure on both pricing and scheduling.
Delays are no longer exceptions—they’re built into planning. A voyage from Shanghai to Rotterdam that once took 30 days now regularly exceeds 40. Reliability has slipped, and shipping schedules, once optimized to the hour, are now padded by days.
Costs are climbing too. Bunker fuel surcharges have returned. Insurance rates for high-risk corridors have jumped. And crews are rotating more frequently due to longer voyages, adding labor complexity.
But not all the effects are negative.
Ports once considered secondary—Tangier Med, Valencia, Durban—are seeing new traffic as carriers recalibrate stops. Some supply chains are becoming more resilient through diversification, splitting inbound loads between different regions or adding short-sea routes to bridge gaps.
For shippers, the strategy has changed. It’s no longer about the shortest path—it’s about the most stable one.
The Suez Canal Authority has responded with incentives, fee reductions, and increased security coordination. Still, most major carriers remain cautious. Rebuilding confidence in the corridor may take longer than restoring physical access.
What was once a deviation is quickly becoming routine.
And in global trade, habits formed under pressure tend to stick.
