Global airfreight markets are feeling the effects of the Iran war more intensely, with capacity cuts, rerouted flows and higher rates now visible across several major corridors.
According to the latest weekly analysis from WorldACD Market Data, global chargeable weight in the week ending 8 March fell 4% week on week and was 12% lower year on year. The sharpest contraction came from the Middle East and South Asia (MESA) region, where tonnage dropped 36% from the previous week. Africa followed with a 23% decline, while Europe slipped 7% and Central and South America were down 2%. Only Asia Pacific and North America posted weekly growth, rising 5% and 3% respectively.
The deepest operational shock was felt around the Gulf, where drone-related disruption — including the temporary suspension of commercial flight operations at Dubai International Airport on 7 March — heavily affected both traffic and capacity. Although flights later resumed, operations remained below normal levels.
Outbound cargo volumes from the Gulf plunged 62% week on week, while capacity dropped 70%. Inbound chargeable weight fell 47%. Traffic from Dubai to the United States and Europe declined 82% and 38% respectively.
Airlines and forwarders have tried to cushion the blow by redirecting traffic through alternative gateways such as Saudi Arabia, while also adding charter capacity and expanding trucking operations where possible.
The impact has extended beyond the Gulf itself. Chargeable weight moving from the Gulf region into Asia Pacific fell 59% week on week, alongside a 67% reduction in capacity, while flows in the opposite direction declined 47%. South Asia has also been hit hard. Cargo volumes from India, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka to Europe dropped 24%, 42% and 45% respectively, while shipments to the United States fell 13%, 32% and 50%.
Asia–Europe flows begin to shift
As transit capacity through the Middle East shrank, airlines increased direct lift between Asia and Europe. Capacity from Asia Pacific to Europe rose 20%, while direct lift from South Asia to Europe increased 13%. The return direction also expanded, with capacity up 26% from Europe to Asia Pacific and 18% to South Asia. Much of that increase came from added direct freighter services.
Tonnage from Asia Pacific to Europe rose 4% week on week, led by a 17% increase from Vietnam and 14% growth from China, helped by post-Lunar New Year factory recovery. Taiwan was the only other origin to record growth, rising 4%, while most other Asian origins softened.
Cargo volumes from Asia Pacific to North America also increased, rising 13% week on week. The biggest gains came from China/Hong Kong (+31%), Vietnam (+25%) and Singapore (+7%). However, the year-on-year comparison remains weaker, with Asia Pacific to North America down 4% overall, including 15% lower from China and 22% lower from Hong Kong. Analysts note that comparisons are distorted by the later post-Lunar New Year rebound this year, combined with heavy front-loading of US imports a year ago.
It remains unclear whether the recent US Supreme Court ruling on tariffs could trigger another short-term surge in exports from China and Vietnam, although most market observers currently expect only a limited effect.
Africa-Europe also under pressure
The rerouting effect has been much more visible between Asia and Europe than between Africa and Europe, where Gulf carriers typically play a central role. That imbalance helps explain much of the 23% weekly fall in African export tonnage, with nearly half of the decline linked to the disrupted Africa–Europe corridor, especially from East Africa, where volumes fell 23%.
Rates accelerate upward
With a large portion of Middle Eastern transit capacity temporarily removed from the market, pricing has moved quickly.
WorldACD said the average global airfreight rate rose 6% week on week to $2.40 per kilogram, up 3% year on year. Global spot rates jumped 10% week on week and were 13% higher than a year earlier, while average contract rates increased 3% week on week but remained 2% below last year’s level.
Central and South America was the only origin region to record a decline in weekly pricing, slipping 7%. Rates from North America, Africa, Europe and Asia Pacific all increased by single digits. But the sharpest move came from MESA, where average pricing surged 28% week on week, reaching 20% above year-ago levels.
The biggest jump was on MESA–Europe lanes, where rates climbed 57% week on week. Country-level increases included Sri Lanka (+93%), the UAE (+77%), India (+50%) and Bangladesh (+41%). Compared with a year ago, rates on those lanes were up between 21% and 89% depending on origin.
Rates from MESA to the US also rose sharply, increasing 22% week on week and sitting 17% above last year’s level. The UAE recorded the strongest weekly jump at 59%, followed by India at 24%.
The reduced transit role of the Middle East is now also showing up in pricing from Asia Pacific to Europe. Spot rates on those lanes climbed 10% week on week, reversing the 1% decline recorded the previous week. With the exception of Hong Kong (-1%), all major Asian origins recorded increases, with the strongest gains seen from Vietnam (+42%), Indonesia (+36%) and Singapore (+31%).
On the Asia Pacific to US corridor, spot rates rose just 1% week on week, but remained 6% lower year on year. Hong Kong and Singapore saw the strongest increases at 16% and 15% respectively, likely helped by the rerouting of South Asian exports across Pacific lanes. By contrast, Malaysia (-5%) and Korea (-2%) were the only origins in the region to record declines.
Outlook
The direction of the market now depends heavily on how long the conflict lasts.
Unless the US–Israeli war with Iran ends quickly, the upward pressure on air cargo pricing is likely to persist, even if Middle Eastern airline operations begin to recover gradually. Passenger carriers have already started raising fares in response to a 58% week-on-week increase in jet fuel prices, while rising war-risk insurance premiums are expected to add further cost across the air cargo market.
For shippers, forwarders and airlines alike, the market is becoming more expensive, less predictable and increasingly shaped by geopolitics rather than normal seasonal demand.
