The container shipping market was in a very different place than expected at the start of the year at the start of the second half of 2026.
Liner operators are benefiting from a more profitable environment, with container freight rates boosted by disruptions surrounding the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, supply chain uncertainty and strong cargo demand.
The latest market assessment is from Maritime Strategies International (MSI) as part of a five-part mid-year review of global shipping markets. Daniel Richards of MSI, speaking in the second episode of the Seatrade Maritime Podcast series, discusses how the container sector has performed in the first six months of 2026 and what might be ahead for the remainder of the year.
A quiet start leads to improved earnings
“2026 is starting out fairly quietly,” Richards said, likening the early days of the year to those of the Red Sea crisis.
Container carriers were back to “slightly profitable” conditions, with a modest bump in spot rates around the Lunar New Year providing some temporary support.
The market at this stage seemed to be heading for a weaker period, especially with the additional volumes of vessels to come on stream in 2027.
However, developments in the first half of the year changed that outlook significantly.
“The market has become a much more profitable environment for liner shipping companies due to a confluence of unexpected events, which at the same time has made conditions much more volatile for beneficial cargo owners and shippers,” said Richards.
Disruption changes the market
Among the main factors affecting the conditions of container shipping in 2026 is the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
The disruption has impacted vessel movements and supply chains, adding to uncertainty over the available capacity and reliability of existing shipping lanes.
Meanwhile, underlying demand for cargo has remained firm, supporting freight rates even as the market is increasingly challenged on the operational side.
Higher rates and limited capacity increase carrier profitability.
Higher rates and limited capacity increase carrier profitability.
But for shippers and cargo owners, the same conditions have created a more challenging operating environment with greater uncertainty over transportation costs, schedules and supply chain planning.
A more unpredictable second period
So the outlook for the remainder of 2026 is being influenced by two opposing forces.
“The market has turned out to be a lot more profitable than anticipated for liner operators. It’s more volatility with higher rates for customers.”
The market’s path depends heavily on the length of the current disruptions, the speed of supply chain adjustments and the evolution of demand in the second half of the year.
The expected increase in vessel supply in 2027 remains an important factor for the longer term outlook. But the first six months have given a taste of how quickly the fundamentals of container shipping can be reshaped thru geopolitics and supply chain disruptions.
Therefore, the second half of 2026 is likely to be closely watched by carriers, shippers and cargo owners alike as they operate in a market that has become more profitable, but also far less predictable.
