By Maria Kalamatas – The Logistic News, March 14, 2025
A major shift in U.S. trade policy is poised to send shockwaves through the global ecommerce industry. The Biden administration’s decision to eliminate de minimis exemptions for China is expected to reshape cross-border trade, creating potential consequences far beyond any previous tariff increases. Experts warn that the move could destabilize supply chains, increase costs, and slow international shipments, particularly for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs).
Understanding De Minimis and Its Role in Global Trade
The de minimis rule allows imported goods valued below a certain threshold to enter a country without incurring customs duties or taxes. This system has been a pillar of modern ecommerce, enabling the swift movement of billions of small-value shipments worldwide.
Currently, the U.S. de minimis threshold is set at $800—one of the highest in the world. The new U.S. administration argues that removing this exemption will help curb illicit imports, particularly opioids from China.
A Reuters report revealed that the U.S. received 1.4 billion de minimis shipments in 2024, largely fueled by online shopping trends. Notably, over 90% of all inbound packages qualify for duty-free import, with 60% originating from China—primarily from direct-to-consumer giants like Temu and Shein.
Why This Move Could Disrupt the Ecommerce Industry
David Taylor, Director of Operations at Mark 3 International, believes that scrapping de minimis exemptions could prove far more damaging than tariff hikes:
“Tariff wars are bad for trade, but removing de minimis exemptions could cripple ecommerce shipments across the world. Our trade with the U.S. is vital to our economy, and ecommerce shipments into the U.S. are huge and growing. If those shipments were subject to tax, it would cause serious problems for UK exporters, ultimately raising prices and creating delays.”
This sentiment is echoed across global trade communities, especially in markets that rely heavily on direct-to-consumer ecommerce models. The United Kingdom, the world’s third-largest ecommerce market after China and the U.S., would be significantly impacted. According to the UK’s Office for National Statistics, the country exported £60.4 billion worth of goods to the U.S. in 2023, making the U.S. its largest single trading partner.
The Looming Impact on Global Ecommerce Revenue
Statista forecasts global ecommerce revenue to hit $4.32 trillion in 2025, climbing to $5.89 trillion by 2029, at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 8%. China alone is expected to generate $1.4 trillion in ecommerce sales this year.
The elimination of de minimis exemptions threatens to disrupt supply chains, increase consumer costs, and complicate cross-border transactions. Ecommerce retailers may need to rethink their logistics strategies to comply with new import regulations.
Taylor warns that de minimis policies directly shape global supply chains:
“To cope with rules changing for one country, an ecommerce producer there could simply shift production to a country that isn’t affected.”
Is This a Protectionist Policy Disguised as a Security Measure?
Many industry leaders and trade analysts argue that de minimis thresholds provide a level playing field for ecommerce sellers, allowing small-value goods to move freely without clogging customs systems.
Taylor highlights the broader economic significance of de minimis:
“De minimis ultimately ensures fair competition for consumers. By removing taxes and duties on low-value goods, ecommerce exporters can compete openly with local businesses, creating a worldwide marketplace.”
“It has been a critical driver of global ecommerce growth, fostering investment in logistics, infrastructure, and business innovation.”
How Ecommerce Businesses Can Prepare
As U.S. trade policies tighten, experts emphasize that businesses must be proactive in adapting to new regulations. Taylor advises companies to seek professional guidance on trade compliance and explore alternative supply chain strategies:
“The best response to any regulatory changes is to seek expert advice. Failure to act is not an option, as the potential impacts can be severe. Ecommerce business owners must plan and adapt now.”
With de minimis policies under scrutiny worldwide, businesses operating in cross-border ecommerce must stay ahead of evolving regulations to ensure long-term sustainability.
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