The air cargo industry is experiencing a significant downturn in freight volumes from China to the United States, coinciding with the Lunar New Year (LNY) celebrations and a series of e-commerce flight cancellations. Recent data indicates a sharp decline in tonnage on this crucial trade route, raising concerns about the underlying causes and potential long-term impacts.
Sharp Decline in Tonnage
According to WorldACD, the weeks following LNY have seen a steep reduction in cargo volumes from China to the U.S. Specifically, week 5 (January 27 – February 2) experienced a 20% week-on-week decrease, followed by an additional 28% drop in week 6 (February 3-9), culminating in a 41% year-on-year decline.
E-commerce Flight Cancellations
The downturn is further exacerbated by the cancellation of numerous e-commerce freighter flights. While the LNY holiday traditionally leads to reduced manufacturing and shipping activities due to factory closures, the extent of the current decline suggests additional factors at play. Industry analysts are closely monitoring these developments to assess their impact on global supply chains and the air cargo market.
Potential Contributing Factors
While the LNY holiday is a known disruptor due to widespread factory shutdowns, the magnitude of the current decline suggests other contributing factors. Industry analysts are investigating additional elements that may be influencing this trend, including potential policy changes and market dynamics.
The situation underscores the need for stakeholders in the logistics and supply chain sectors to remain vigilant and adaptable in response to evolving market conditions.
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