A new analysis from Verisk Maplecroft suggests that most major emerging economies will weather Washington’s new tariff regime far better than expected. The study, published Thursday, finds that countries such as China, India, Brazil, and Indonesia have already adapted through diversified export bases, stronger regional trade links, and flexible currencies, giving them room to maneuver as U.S. duties rise.
The report argues that while headline trade volumes could dip in the short term, structural shifts are cushioning the blow. Supply chains are quietly re-routing toward intra-Asian corridors, South–South exchanges, and regional manufacturing clusters serving multiple end-markets rather than relying solely on North America.
Economists interviewed by Reuters said the current tariff round—targeting sectors from green technology to steel and electronics—will likely rearrange trade lanes instead of collapsing them. India, for instance, is strengthening links with Southeast Asia through the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, while Latin America’s exporters are pivoting to Europe and intra-continental demand.
“The era of hyper-globalization is gone, but the idea that trade is dying is wrong,” said one Singapore-based trade analyst. “It’s reorganizing, not retreating.”
For logistics operators, this changing map translates into new opportunities for multimodal integration. Freight forwarders are already exploring east-west and south-south lanes once considered marginal, from Vietnam to the Middle East or Mexico to West Africa.
The broader takeaway from Maplecroft’s data is that resilience now depends on adaptability: countries able to shift sourcing and currency exposure quickly will keep their cargo moving even when policy winds change.
