Air traffic across the Gulf is stabilising in terms of cancellations, but capacity levels remain significantly below normal — pointing to a deeper structural adjustment rather than a temporary disruption.
According to new data from Cirium, the initial shock at the onset of the conflict was severe. On February 28, around 37% of flights were cancelled, with disruption quickly intensifying to more than 65% of departures — grounding over 2,300 daily flights at peak impact.
While cancellation rates have since declined, capacity reductions across key hubs — including Dubai (DXB), Doha (DOH) and Abu Dhabi (AUH) — remain substantial.
For the second half of April (16–30 April 2026), capacity at Dubai and Doha is down by around 50% year-on-year across flights, seats and available seat kilometres. Abu Dhabi has experienced a more moderate decline, ranging between 18% and 31%, reflecting a more selective reduction strategy.
The consequences extend well beyond the region. Gulf carriers play a critical role in global connectivity, particularly on Europe–Asia and Europe–Australasia corridors. Emirates alone accounts for over 13% of Europe–Asia passenger traffic and more than 31% of Europe–Australasia flows, with Qatar Airways and Etihad further reinforcing this concentration.
Operational disruption varies significantly by airport. Doha has been among the most impacted, with nearly 80% of operations affected, while Tel Aviv experienced disruption levels of around 86%. Even the largest hubs, Dubai and Abu Dhabi, maintained disruption rates close to 50%, which would be considered severe under normal conditions.
At the airline level, Qatar Airways saw disruption levels of approximately 77%, compared to 32% for Emirates and 49% for Etihad.
International carriers have responded aggressively. Major U.S. and Canadian airlines — including Delta, United, American Airlines and Air Canada — have suspended operations entirely, while European carriers such as British Airways and Lufthansa have maintained limited services where feasible.
The three main Gulf carriers have collectively removed more than 5.4 million seats and over 18,000 flights from April schedules alone.
At this stage, there is no clear timeline for a return to normal operations. Recovery will depend not only on geopolitical stability but also on airline strategy, passenger confidence and the restoration of operational infrastructure.
