Shipowners are growing increasingly concerned that bunker fuel could become scarce if the conflict involving Iran continues and disruption around the Strait of Hormuz persists.
The closure of the strait to all but a limited number of ships has already had a major impact on bunker markets. Prices have roughly doubled since late February, just before the conflict in the Middle East began, but operators say the bigger concern now is not just cost but supply.
Around 20% of the world’s crude oil comes from the Gulf region and normally passes through the Strait of Hormuz, making any long-term disruption a serious risk for shipping.
SK Lim, managing director Pacific at G2 Ocean, said the bunker price for VLSFO in Singapore stood at $525 per tonne on 27 February, the day before war broke out in Iran, and had risen to more than $1,100 per tonne earlier this week. He noted that the easing of a US threat to bomb Iranian power infrastructure had helped prices retreat somewhat, with Ship & Bunker showing VLSFO in Singapore at $894.50 per tonne after a $91.50 drop on Tuesday.
Speaking during a panel at Asia Pacific Maritime in Singapore, Lim said the real concern is the availability of bunkers. He noted that while the Strait of Hormuz is not entirely closed, since some ships can still transit if they are willing to take the risk, the longer the situation continues, the more worrying the prospect of fuel shortages becomes.
Ben Pike, chief operating officer at Swire Shipping, echoed those concerns, saying operators are closely watching whether bunker supplies will still be available in four, six or eight weeks’ time.
Ang Wee Keong, chief executive of the Maritime & Port Authority of Singapore, said there is adequate bunker supply to meet the industry’s demand. Singapore is the world’s largest refuelling port, having sold 57.66 million tonnes of bunkers in 2025.
So far, shipowners have not reported actual fuel shortages, but they are monitoring the situation carefully. One senior executive said his company is now securing fuel 30 days in advance instead of the usual 10 days to make sure supply is available.
Intertanko is understood to be advising members to document cases where they cannot obtain fuel compliant with the 0.5% sulphur cap. Some countries in Asia are already feeling the impact. The Philippines, which imports 98% of its fuel from the Gulf, has declared a state of national energy emergency.
Iran has said the Strait of Hormuz remains open to maritime traffic, although it stated that vessels belonging to the US, Israel or other participants in the aggression do not qualify for innocent or non-hostile passage.
Transit activity through the strait has increased slightly in recent days, particularly for ships from countries not directly linked to the conflict, such as China, Thailand and India. Iran is also reportedly charging as much as $2 million for safe passage.
