By Eva Richardson | The Logistic News
April 11, 2025
As the global trade landscape veers toward further uncertainty, the U.S. government’s latest tariff strategy has ignited both temporary relief and renewed anxiety across supply chains. While a 90-day pause was announced for tariffs on allies like Japan, Vietnam, and the European Union, the spotlight remains firmly on China, where tariffs have surged to an eye-watering 125%—the highest since the early stages of the Trump-era trade war.
This dual-track policy approach—easing pressure on some nations while intensifying it on America’s largest trading rival—has already started to reshape logistics decisions, strain air cargo planning, and complicate forecasting for forwarders and shippers.
A Surge in Protectionism – and Complexity
The tariff updates include:
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A 125% tariff on Chinese imports, triggered after Beijing imposed an 84% retaliatory rate.
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A 90-day suspension on elevated tariffs for countries including:
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Japan (formerly facing 24%)
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Vietnam (46%)
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Taiwan (32%)
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EU member states (20%)
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A 25% tariff on automobiles, now in effect.
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A 25% tariff on auto parts, starting in May.
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The elimination of the de minimis exemption for Chinese e-commerce parcels, also set for May, threatening the business model of many e-retailers and air cargo carriers alike.
Uncertainty Clouds Air Cargo and Planning Cycles
While exporters scrambled to beat tariff deadlines in March and April, the ripple effects are now destabilizing forward capacity planning. According to Freightos, the new tariff wave is “roiling markets” and has sown confusion among logistics professionals trying to discern whether the actions are protectionist retaliation or short-term political posturing.
“This is hitting supply chain strategy at its core,” said TAC Index editor Neil Wilson. “Airlines, forwarders, and importers can’t plan more than a few weeks ahead. The rules keep shifting—and that uncertainty is now being priced into rates and contracts.”
Block Space Agreements (BSAs) linked to Chinese e-commerce cargo are reportedly being cancelled for May departures, reflecting widespread concern over the loss of the de minimis rule, which had previously allowed small-value imports to bypass duties. While demand spiked in early April, carriers are now anticipating a volatile May.
Navigating Tariff Fallout: Creativity and Compliance
In response, data provider Xeneta advises shippers to build contractual flexibility into logistics agreements, including clauses that allow renegotiation or route optimization. One strategy gaining attention is circumventive routing—shipping goods via third countries with lower trade surpluses with the U.S.
“A shipper could send goods from China to Brazil, then onward to the U.S. East Coast,” Xeneta suggested. “So long as the final documentation and transformation meet rules of origin standards, the tariff burden could be reduced. But this introduces far more complexity—and risk.”
Analysts caution that while such “compliance games” may offer temporary relief, they can strain already fragile supply chains and trigger further scrutiny from customs authorities. As new rules around repackaging, repurposing, and certification of origin come into force, many supply chain teams will be forced to upgrade trade compliance infrastructure or risk penalties.
A Fragile Global Outlook
Beyond operational disruption, the psychological impact of the tariff volley is being felt in boardrooms and market sentiment indicators alike. Expectations for U.S. economic growth have softened, and many freight operators report a more pessimistic business climate heading into Q2.
“This isn’t just about pricing or routing—it’s about confidence,” Wilson added. “And right now, the only thing you can predict with certainty is more volatility.”
Why It Matters:
As the U.S. tightens its grip on Chinese trade while loosening pressure on allies, logistics professionals must respond with agility, creativity, and caution. In today’s environment, strategic supply chain design has become a form of geopolitical navigation.
Eva Richardson is a senior correspondent at The Logistic News, covering global trade policy, cross-border logistics, and the intersection of geopolitics and freight.
