The ongoing conflict involving Iran is already sending shockwaves through global shipping markets, with industry leaders warning that prolonged instability could significantly disrupt international trade.
Speaking at the Capital Link International Shipping Forum, maritime executives discussed the potential consequences of rising fuel prices, vessel rerouting and increasing congestion across key trade corridors.
Joe Kramek, president and CEO of the World Shipping Council, said the full impact of the crisis remains difficult to predict.
“There will be significant knock-on effects, and we cannot yet anticipate all of them,” he noted, adding that elevated container freight rates could persist longer than many expect.
Other industry leaders pointed to previous crises — including the Covid-19 pandemic and the Ever Given blockage of the Suez Canal — as examples of how quickly global shipping markets can shift.
According to Bill Rooney, a senior executive at Kuehne+Nagel, container freight rates rose five-fold during the early stages of the pandemic.
While the current situation has not yet reached that level, Rooney warned that the situation could deteriorate rapidly if hostilities continue.
“If things don’t settle down within three or four weeks, the situation could get materially worse,” he said.
Meanwhile, newly appointed US Maritime Administrator Stephen Carmel emphasised that geopolitical tensions are increasingly shaping global supply chains.
He warned that modern conflicts increasingly target critical infrastructure and logistics networks, threatening the stability of global trade systems.
Carmel argued that resilience must now become as important as efficiency in supply chain planning, requiring greater investment in maritime capacity, infrastructure and industry collaboration.
