Investor confidence in container shipping companies is rising again as global disruption begins to tighten capacity and push freight rates higher across several major trade lanes.
According to Dynamar analyst Darron Wadey, market data indicates that approximately 500,000 TEU of container capacity is currently trapped in the Arabian Gulf. With additional vessels already sailing toward the region carrying Middle East cargo, the disruption is expected to have a growing impact on global trade flows.
Share prices of container shipping-related companies have reacted quickly. Wadey noted that nearly twice as many shipping stocks rose as those that declined. Companies with direct exposure to vessel assets — including shipowners and container carriers — recorded the strongest gains.
Asian companies dominated the list of top performers, particularly those based in China, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. In contrast, companies more exposed to port operations have lagged behind, reflecting concerns that reduced throughput could affect terminal activity.
The market’s reaction does not reflect optimism that the geopolitical situation will be resolved quickly. Instead, investors appear to be positioning themselves to benefit from short-term volatility and potential profit opportunities created by the disruption.
Container cargo already en route to the region is expected to be diverted to alternative ports considered safer. Shippers will need to provide updated instructions for onward transport and will also bear the additional costs of these diversions.
According to Wadey, shipping lines have already warned cargo owners that diversion and onward shipping charges could range between $1,500 and $2,000 per TEU.
The broader ripple effects of the crisis could be felt globally. Xeneta chief analyst Peter Sand warned that disruption in the Middle East can quickly translate into congestion, port delays and rapidly rising freight rates across international supply chains.
Xeneta data suggests that 147 container vessels are currently trapped in the Gulf, unable to leave without sailing through an active conflict zone.
The immediate question now facing shipping lines is where ships currently heading toward the region will ultimately discharge their cargo.
Alternative ports are unlikely to be fully prepared for sudden surges in container volumes arriving under irregular schedules. This could trigger severe congestion. Ports such as Salalah in Oman are potential diversion hubs, although that location has already faced military threats. Sri Lankan ports could also become temporary alternatives due to their geographic proximity.
Shipping lines are already exploring contingency plans. During a media briefing in Singapore, Maersk said it was evaluating how its hub operations in Salalah could support rerouted cargo.
Freight rates are already responding to the disruption. Spot rates from China to Salalah have jumped 28% compared with pre-conflict levels, while rates to Colombo have increased by 17%. Rates to the UK have risen by around 9%.
Across other major trade routes, freight rates are also climbing. However, part of the increase reflects seasonal demand returning as businesses in China and other Asian economies resume operations following the Lunar New Year holidays.
At the same time, shipping lines have implemented significant capacity adjustments. Capacity on routes to the US West Coast has declined by 5.6%, while capacity to the US East Coast has fallen by 7.1%. North European routes have seen an even sharper reduction of 12.7%.
Freight rates are already climbing on the Asia–Europe corridor. Prices from the Far East to North Europe have risen from $2,224 per FEU to $2,338, while rates to the Mediterranean have increased from $3,334 to $3,570 per FEU.
On the trans-Pacific corridor, rates from Asia to the US West Coast have risen from $1,883 per FEU to $2,123, while Asia–US East Coast rates climbed from $2,659 to $2,870 per FEU.
The Atlantic market has been the exception so far, with rates falling slightly to around $1,451 per FEU as additional capacity entered the trade.
Despite the volatility, Wadey noted that container shipping has repeatedly demonstrated resilience during global disruptions. However, he cautioned that predicting the trajectory of the current situation remains extremely difficult.
“With such a volatile environment and multiple geopolitical actors involved, the only certainty is that disruption will continue,” Wadey said.
