Truck transportation employment in the United States slipped slightly in February, adding to an unexpectedly weak nonfarm payrolls report that showed overall employment falling by 92,000 when economists had expected a modest increase.
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, seasonally adjusted trucking jobs declined by 500 in February to 1,462,500. That compares with a revised January figure of 1,463,000, itself slightly higher than previously reported. Even with that revision, the broader trend remains soft. February trucking employment was down 4,700 jobs from December and 22,100 below the level recorded a year earlier.
Warehousing, by contrast, posted a small recovery. Employment in the sector rose to 1,834,700 in February, and January was revised upward to 1,832,400, a gain of 5,400 from the original estimate. Even so, warehouse employment remains below the December level of 1,836,200 and far below the 1,883,400 jobs recorded in February 2025.
The slight decline in trucking employment was interpreted by some market observers as further evidence that capacity is tightening. David Spencer, vice president of market intelligence at Arrive Logistics, said recent freight market conditions suggest even small disruptions such as bad weather are having outsized effects on rates because available capacity has become increasingly thin.
At the same time, Spencer said weak and inconsistent freight demand continues to hold carriers back from hiring aggressively, even though firmer rates would normally support payroll growth.
Aaron Terrazas, an independent economist with freight experience at Convoy, said the broader payroll report has been marked by repeated revisions and a pattern of monthly swings that make it difficult to identify a clear direction. He noted that December’s employment figures were revised from a gain of 50,000 to a loss of 17,000, reinforcing what he described as a ten-month seesaw in payroll performance.
Terrazas also pointed out that, apart from a sharp drop in courier employment, most changes across transportation and warehousing subcategories were small enough to be considered statistical noise for now.
Not everyone sees the numbers as purely random. Mazen Danaf, an economist at Uber Freight, noted that rising tractor orders appear inconsistent with continued trucking job losses. He suggested this divergence may reflect a different type of capacity reduction than in past downturns — one driven less by market weakness alone and more by a tightening regulatory environment. If so, he said, that dynamic could intensify capacity tightness in the months ahead.
Other labour indicators in the report were stronger. Hourly earnings for production and nonsupervisory trucking employees rose again in January to a record $31.92, up from $31.76. Warehousing wages also hit a record, increasing by 36 cents to $25.40 per hour. Rail employment, however, continued to weaken, falling by 700 jobs to 151,900 and extending a year-long erosion that has reduced total rail employment by 4,500 positions.
