After a sharp surge in April, air cargo rates may be reaching their peak, according to market intelligence firm Xeneta.
Global demand rose modestly by 2% year-on-year in April, while capacity declined by 1%. This imbalance pushed the dynamic cargo load factor up to 62%, gaining three percentage points compared to previous levels.
The most striking figure remains the surge in spot rates, which increased by over 30% to an average of $3.34 per kilogram.
This spike reflects the cascading impact of the Middle East conflict: higher fuel costs, disrupted supply chains, increased reliance on direct flights, longer transit times and sustained pressure on available capacity.
Despite these conditions, Xeneta believes the worst may be behind the market.
Niall van de Wouw, Chief Airfreight Officer, points to a gradual return of capacity on key routes, suggesting that fundamental supply-demand dynamics could soon stabilise pricing.
Interestingly, fuel cost increases are not translating uniformly into higher rates. On transatlantic routes, prices have recently declined despite rising jet fuel costs.
Regional trends show diverging dynamics. Rates from Southeast Asia to the Middle East and Europe surged by 43% and 61% respectively, while North America-bound shipments rose by 33%.
From Northeast Asia, rates reached new highs across all major corridors — Middle East, Europe and North America.
Conversely, Europe–North America rates dropped by 17%, driven by increased belly capacity from summer passenger schedules.
Looking ahead, Xeneta warns that 2026 could remain challenging. Inflation and declining Chinese e-commerce volumes are expected to weigh on demand, with signs that B2C air cargo growth may be losing momentum.
