Canada is on course to miss its 2030 emissions target under the Paris Agreement and may not even reach that target until 2050, according to a new analysis from the Canadian Climate Institute.
The institute’s latest modelling, which incorporates recent federal policy changes, indicates that Canada is now more than 20 years behind the trajectory required to meet its international climate commitments. Without stronger policies, the country’s emissions in 2040 would remain at least 202 million tonnes above levels consistent with a pathway to net-zero emissions.
Canada’s climate targets have evolved over the past two decades. Under former prime minister Stephen Harper, the country committed to reducing emissions by 30 per cent from 2005 levels. In 2021, the government of Justin Trudeau strengthened that commitment to a reduction of between 40 and 45 per cent by 2030 and established a net-zero target for 2050.
The federal government under Prime Minister Mark Carney has repeatedly said Canada remains committed to those objectives. However, Carney acknowledged in June that emissions would be higher “in the next few years” than previously projected, while describing some Trudeau-era climate policies as “too expensive and divisive.”
A Canadian Climate Institute study published in February had already concluded that Canada was not on track to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. The institute’s new analysis goes further, saying that under current policies Canada would “be lucky to hit its 2030 target in 2050.”
“What the country has already shown is that we can cut emissions while growing the economy,” Rick Smith, president of the Canadian Climate Institute, told The Canadian Press. “But, you know, this isn’t going to happen magically.”
Federal climate policy changes under scrutiny
Carney, who previously served as a United Nations climate envoy before becoming prime minister, has faced criticism over the direction of federal climate policy since taking office.
One of the first major changes came in March 2025, when the government announced the end of the consumer-facing carbon price, with the federal fuel charge ceasing to apply on April 1, 2025. Ottawa said the move would refocus carbon pricing on industrial emissions rather than household fuel charges.
Carney had also pledged to strengthen industrial carbon pricing. Critics, however, argued that the Canada-Alberta agreement reached in May could weaken the system and have implications beyond Alberta. The federal government says it is updating the industrial carbon-pricing trajectory, with the revised system scheduled to reach $115 per tonne in 2030 and $130 in 2035.
The government is also moving to repeal the electric-vehicle sales mandate. Ottawa has said stronger tailpipe emissions standards will replace it, although those measures are still years away. At the same time, the government is moving to cancel the oil and gas emissions cap and has delayed methane regulations in Alberta.
Carney has nevertheless set an objective of increasing electric-vehicle adoption to 75 per cent by 2035, with a longer-term ambition of reaching 90 per cent by 2040.
Ottawa’s National Electricity Strategy, announced in May, also calls for lower emissions through major expansion of the country’s electricity system. The strategy aims to double the capacity of Canada’s electricity grid by 2050 and includes support for energy-efficiency retrofits covering up to one million households.
“Those are just kind of aspirational comments right now, there’s no specific government policy attached to any of them,” Smith said.
“We couldn’t bake any of that into the analysis that we’re releasing. But as the details of those policies materialize over the next few months, those are the types of significant moves that would improve these calculations.”
Canada still faces a substantial emissions gap
A 2024 report from Environment Commissioner Jerry DeMarco warned that Canada had only a limited number of years left to deliver the emissions reductions required for its 2030 target. The report concluded that the federal government had not made sufficient progress and that the bulk of the required reductions still had to be achieved.
The latest federal emissions figures show that Canada’s greenhouse gas emissions fell by 10.3 per cent between 2005 and 2024, a reduction of 78 million tonnes. Total emissions stood at 685 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2024.
To reach the 2030 target, Canada would need an emissions reduction equivalent to taking 102 million passenger gasoline-powered vehicles off the road, according to the study cited by The Canadian Press.
In response to the analysis, the office of Environment Minister Julie Dabrusin said the federal government remains committed to reaching net-zero emissions by 2050 through what it described as “a pragmatic and durable approach.”
“This includes building major clean energy projects across the country, driving mass electrification, and making significant investment in the low-carbon economy,” said press secretary Keean Nembhard.
The government pointed to the North Coast Transmission Line as one example. The project, now under construction in British Columbia, is expected to reduce emissions by up to three million tonnes annually while more than doubling the availability of clean electricity along Canada’s West Coast.
“Getting to net-zero also requires building clean, affordable, and reliable power across the country, and we are moving rapidly to build the clean energy infrastructure that makes that possible,” Nembhard said.
Ottawa also cited its plan to double Canada’s electricity grid under the National Electricity Strategy, build major clean-energy projects and retrofit one million homes for greater energy efficiency.
