A modest decline in container spot rates from Asia to the U.S. West Coast has provided the first indication of easing trans-Pacific prices since mid-September, according to Xeneta. Meanwhile, rates on routes from Asia to Europe continued to retreat in early October, giving European shippers a more favorable position as they negotiate annual freight contracts.
Trans-Pacific Rates Record a First Decline
Spot rates from the Far East to the U.S. West Coast slipped by $2 per forty-foot equivalent unit (FEU) on October 7, marking the first daily decrease in several weeks. The move signals a slight change in market direction after a period of rising prices.
“It is a marginal move, but the first dip since mid-September,” said Peter Sand, chief analyst at Xeneta.
Despite the latest decline, West Coast rates remained 1.1% above their September 30 level, reaching $8,336 per FEU. Rates from Asia to the U.S. East Coast averaged $11,512 per FEU, representing a 0.5% increase over the week.
Across the trans-Atlantic market, spot rates from North Europe to the U.S. East Coast moved in the opposite direction, falling 1.1% week over week to $2,854 per FEU.
Mediterranean Rates Continue to Slide
The Mediterranean has experienced the sharpest price correction since rates peaked in July following the Hormuz crisis. According to Sand, market-average spot rates on the Asia-Mediterranean trade have dropped 43% since July 1, compared with a 34% decline on routes from the Far East to North Europe.
Although the pace of the decline has moderated slightly, the downward trend remains intact.
“The pace of the decline has eased a little, but rates are still elevated and the trend is still downward, so we are not at the floor yet,” Sand said.
As of October 7, spot rates from Asia to the Mediterranean averaged $4,007 per FEU, down 5.9% from September 30. Rates from the Far East to North Europe averaged $3,645 per FEU, representing a 2.5% decrease over the same period.
The Price Premium for Mediterranean Routes Narrows
The sharper decline in Mediterranean rates has significantly reduced the price gap between the Mediterranean and North European markets.
The premium has narrowed to approximately $400 per FEU, below the roughly $500 difference recorded on October 1, 2025, and far below the $2,000 gap observed on January 1, 2026. Xeneta’s October 7 market averages placed the difference at $362 per FEU.
Sand said the contrast between the two European destinations illustrates how pricing volatility varies across individual shipping routes.
“The spread between the Mediterranean and North Europe shows that no two trades are alike and that volatility differs depending on where you ship from and to,” he said.
Carrier decisions to divert vessels away from the Suez Canal and route them around Africa may help explain this pricing pattern. These longer voyages have extended transit times to the Mediterranean compared with North Europe, even though North Europe has historically been the more expensive destination.
Falling Spot Rates Give European Shippers More Leverage
The decline in short-term freight prices comes as European shippers enter a critical period for negotiating long-term transportation agreements. These contracts are also benchmarked against prevailing spot-market rates, making recent market movements particularly relevant to annual procurement decisions.
“For European shippers, tender season is in full force and falling short-term rates are a welcome development as they negotiate long-term contracts,” Sand said.
Demand has remained strong throughout the year, particularly on routes serving Europe. However, Sand noted that such growth could not continue at double-digit rates indefinitely.
As demand eases from previously elevated levels, competition for vessel capacity is diminishing. This shift is creating more favorable conditions for shippers negotiating freight agreements with ocean carriers.
The improved negotiating environment is also benefiting intermediaries. Sand said freight forwarders are increasingly securing more favorable terms during long-term contract discussions with carriers.
“Even freight forwarders are now getting better deals from carriers in long-term contract negotiations,” he said.
While the first small decline in trans-Pacific rates suggests that pricing momentum may be changing, the broader market remains uneven. For European shippers, however, continued declines across Asia-Europe routes are already strengthening their position in contract negotiations, even as vessel diversions continue to shape the differences between regional trades.
