Oil executives described Venezuela’s oil sector as “not investible” when the Trump administration arrested Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro in January.
That verdict may be changing now. The latest move under Trump 2.0 to make its oil industry “investable” and ultimately materially increase the effective supply of Venezuelan crude available to US energy producers, is the US president’s announcement of a big deal with Venezuela.
The latest White House announcement already had the feel of a slow recovery. In early August, Erik Broekhuizen, Director of Tanker Research for Poten, said that the Venezuelan oil industry continued to face “huge challenges” after decades of corruption, underinvestment and deteriorating infrastructure. But he also pointed to gains in crude production, with exports beginning to rebound.
Rystad Energy was similarly guarded in its analysis after Trump’s announcement. Analysts said the deal could significantly change Venezuela’s long-term production path, but any recovery would likely be slow and initially focused on brownfield projects and exposed to considerable political, contractual and execution risks.
The anchor of the pact is North American Blue Energy Partners (NABEP), a big-time operator owned by Venezuelan politically connected oil baron Alejandro Betancourt. Concessions to drill are expected to be granted to the company.
Venezuela oil exports show signs of recovery
Poten’s analysis shows a steep decline in Venezuelan crude exports over the past decade. Shipments were around 2 million barrels per day as recently as 2016, dropping to approximately 500,000 barrels per day between 2022 and 2024.
By mid-2026, exports began to recover when a prior round of US sanctions was lifted. A small rebound saw volumes move back above 1 million barrels per day, with the US overtaking China as the main destination for Venezuelan crude.
The rise is also becoming visible at sea. In recent months, ship-tracking apps have reported a big backup of tankers waiting to load Venezuelan crude. The vessels are primarily Aframax and LR2 tankers, particularly around PDVSA facilities near Amuay Bay and Punta Cardon.
The recovery is not just of crude. Tracking services said in March 2026 that asphalt exports to the US Gulf Coast had resumed after a suspension a year earlier.
Possible route > 2 million bpd
Rystad Energy sees Venezuelan output potentially exceeding 2 million barrels per day by 2030.
The new US-Venezuela oil deal involves 17 strategic developments with around 65 billion barrels of recoverable crude, the energy consultancy said. The opportunities are in the Orinoco Belt greenfield projects and brownfield redevelopment projects around Lake Maracaibo.
The potential supply from these developments is about 20% of Venezuela’s huge total oil reserve base.
But realizing that potential will require far more than access to reserves. Venezuela’s oil sector remains plagued by years of underinvestment, infrastructure decay and political and contractual uncertainty. These are the factors that will probably determine how fast production can actually recover.
Venezuela’s crude oil and the US-Canada trade spat
The potential for increased Venezuelan oil imports also has a geopolitical and trade element.
Generally the oil from Venezuela is heavy, sour crude with a high sulfur content, and in many ways is similar to the crude from western Canada. The link is particularly pertinent as Washington pursues its tariff dispute with Canada.
The prospect of more Venezuelan supplies could thus offer US refiners another source of crude as the administration continues to pursue its broader trade strategy.
Trump’s announcement also includes plans to rebuild the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve, which was depleted in 2024 and 2025 under the Biden administration and Trump 2.0.
The timing is important. In the period ahead, a major rerouting of global crude flows is expected, which will further increase the strategic importance of diversified sources of supply.
The Venezuela deal thus has an energy security rationale as well as an investment and production objective.
That strategic dimension is underlined by the very framework of the agreement. An administration notice says NABEP has given the Office of Strategic Capital of the US Department of War a 35% equity share in its corporate parent.
For Venezuela, the deal could be the start of a long and painful effort to fix its oil industry. It could provide the U.S. with additional heavy crude supplies and bolster its position as global flows of oil continue to change.
The opportunity is huge, but so are the risks. The crucial question now is no longer the amount of oil Venezuela has in the ground but how fast – and under what political, contractual and operational conditions that oil can be commercially investible.
