By Maria Kalamatas | August 5, 2025
Washington, August 5 — The charts are flat. The trucks are moving — slowly. And the phones, some weeks, barely ring.
That’s how one mid-sized freight broker in Indiana summed up the mood after the U.S. Department of Transportation released its latest logistics indicator report this morning.
“There’s volume, sure,” he said. “But nobody’s rushing. Everyone’s waiting to see what happens.”
Freight isn’t falling — but it’s not growing either
According to the federal data, shipment volume has remained essentially stable since late May. That’s not bad, but it’s not encouraging either. Especially not for carriers that expanded during the 2022–2023 boom and are now trying to keep equipment and labor balanced.
Truckload rates have edged downward. Warehousing demand is still high in coastal markets, but softening inland. Fuel costs have ticked up slightly, putting pressure on thin-margin operators.
One Atlanta-based distributor put it bluntly: “If I don’t know what to expect next month, I’m not adding lanes this month.”
Trade policy jitters
At the same time, uncertainty around international trade rules continues to cloud planning. With tariffs under review and geopolitical tensions flaring again in the Indo-Pacific, importers and exporters are holding back.
Several logistics firms report that orders are being confirmed later than usual. Spot quotes are up. But bookings are cautious.
“It’s like everyone’s watching everyone else before making a move,” said a freight planner based in Long Beach.
Data tells a mixed story
The report noted a rise in cross-border traffic with Mexico, driven partly by nearshoring trends. But rail volumes between Chicago and the West Coast remain below 2023 levels.
Parcel volumes are healthy — a bright spot — thanks to steady e-commerce demand. But the same report shows that returns are also up, which complicates inventory cycles and reverse logistics capacity.
For supply chain managers, the message is clear: don’t expect consistency. At least not yet.
No alarm bells — just static
This isn’t a downturn. It’s more like a pause. Shippers aren’t panicking. But they’re not scaling fast either.
“Planning feels like walking through fog,” said one operations director in Kansas City. “We’re moving, but we’re not sure what’s ahead.”
