The disruption surrounding the Strait of Hormuz is no longer just a maritime story. According to analysis from Freightos, tightening fuel supplies, reduced airline capacity and shifting trade flows are now feeding directly into the air cargo market, creating a far more complex operating environment for carriers and forwarders.
Nearly six weeks after Iran shut the Strait of Hormuz, vessel movements remain heavily constrained, with only a small number of ships passing through each day. While ocean freight has absorbed the initial shock, air cargo is now feeling the secondary effects through higher fuel costs, limited capacity and changes in routing.
Jet fuel availability has become a major concern, particularly in parts of Asia. Reports of cancellations in Vietnam and refuelling restrictions in South Korea and the Philippines show how quickly operational disruption can spread. At the same time, major Middle Eastern carriers remain below normal operating levels, with Emirates SkyCargo estimated at roughly 60 percent of its regular schedule, Etihad at 40 percent and Qatar Airways Cargo at around 20 percent. That shortfall is continuing to affect traffic on key corridors linking Asia, Europe and the Middle East.
The immediate market response has been a sharp spike in rates. Freightos Air Index figures show South Asia-Europe prices rising 62 percent from pre-conflict levels, while Southeast Asia-Europe has climbed 33 percent to around $4.50 per kg. Europe-Middle East rates have effectively doubled.
There are now some early indications of stabilisation. China-Europe prices have eased by 7 percent over the past two weeks and Southeast Asia-Europe rates are down around 10 percent from recent peaks, suggesting the first wave of shock demand is beginning to normalise as capacity slowly returns and supply chains adjust.
For forwarders, that means a more nuanced market. Pricing is still elevated, but not as volatile as it was immediately after the disruption. The central question is no longer whether rates will jump again, but how long current levels can hold.
The relationship between ocean and airfreight remains critical. Container prices have surged even though underlying demand remains weak, with transpacific rates up almost 40 percent since before the conflict and Asia-Europe up around 20 percent. Under normal market conditions, this period would usually see softening. Instead, fuel inflation and vessel constraints have pushed rates in the opposite direction.
