The conflict involving Iran is increasingly influencing annual contract negotiations between carriers and freight forwarders, as volatility in the air cargo market pushes more shippers toward shorter commitments.
According to Xeneta, the conflict has accelerated a shift toward three-month agreements rather than annual deals, shortening the validity of rates and adding uncertainty to procurement decisions. Chief airfreight officer Niall van de Wouw said Xeneta had been advising customers to delay tenders because the market backdrop could change too quickly to justify longer-term commitments.
The disruption began after US military strikes against Iran on 28 February, which unsettled logistics activity across the Middle East. While the market entered 2026 with some optimism, the outlook has since become more uncertain.
A major issue is jet fuel. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has driven up oil prices and nearly doubled jet fuel costs, intensifying pressure on airlines already dealing with tight capacity and disrupted routes. On 30 March, the US Gulf Coast spot price for kerosene-type jet fuel reached US$4.24, up from US$3.93 the previous week, according to US Energy Information Administration data.
Van de Wouw said higher fuel prices would not immediately destroy airfreight demand, but warned that a prolonged conflict could create a much broader economic problem. Dubai and Doha remain critical connecting points between Asia, Europe and the Americas, and the instability is already redirecting cargo flows and lifting rates on affected tradelanes.
Xeneta reported that global air cargo spot rates reached US$2.86 per kg in March, up 14 percent year on year and above the 2025 peak-season average, making them the highest since December 2024. Spot shipments accounted for 52 percent of global air cargo volumes, close to the level seen at the start of the Covid-19 pandemic.
Rates from Northeast and Southeast Asia to North America have risen by mid- to high-double-digit percentages year on year, largely because of higher fuel costs. South Asia to North America has been even more affected, up 75 percent, reflecting the strong role of Middle East carriers in that corridor.
Longer-term rates tell a different story. On Asia-America lanes, rates valid for more than one month were only slightly higher than four weeks earlier, influenced more by tariffs and the end of de minimis exemptions than by the conflict itself.
Xeneta believes the market is still dealing mainly with a supply problem, but warned that if recovery takes too long, it could evolve into a broader demand issue.
