A.P. Moller-Maersk has lifted the lower end of its annual profit forecast after a stronger-than-expected third quarter, even as weak freight rates continue to squeeze the group’s main shipping business.
The Danish giant reported an underlying EBITDA of about 2.69 billion USD for the third quarter of 2025 — a 44 percent decline from the same period last year, yet slightly above analyst expectations. Quarterly revenue came in at 14.2 billion USD, roughly 10 percent lower year-on-year.
On the back of better volumes, particularly outbound flows from China and Southeast Asia, Maersk now expects a full-year EBITDA between 9.0 and 9.5 billion USD, compared with a previous range of 8.0 to 9.5 billion. The company also nudged up its estimate for global container-volume growth to around 4 percent, signalling cautious optimism about the recovery in trade lanes.
Still, the tone from management remains restrained. The fall in spot freight rates has continued through the quarter, trimming margins across the Ocean segment. Capacity oversupply and uneven demand, notably on trans-Pacific and Asia-Europe routes, remain the biggest headwinds.
Maersk’s Terminals and Logistics & Services divisions provided some relief, posting steadier performance thanks to higher landside volumes and improved yield management. Executives highlighted that cost discipline and network flexibility will stay at the center of strategy for the remainder of the year.
In short, Maersk is managing to do better than expected, but not yet enough to escape the weight of a weak rate environment. The message to the market is one of measured confidence: growth is back, profitability is still a fight, and stability depends on how quickly freight prices find their floor.
