According to a recent note from Morgan Stanley commented on by FreightWaves, the rebalancing between supply and demand in US trucking could occur earlier than expected. The investment bank now estimates that the inflection point could be reached as early as 2026, not in 2027 as some previous scenarios had anticipated.
This analysis is based on several signals: a slowdown in the commissioning of new tractors, difficulties in accessing credit for small fleets, accelerated consolidation after the wave of bankruptcies recorded over the past two years, and a gradual improvement in loaded volumes. However, the market would remain far from a capacity shock: Morgan Stanley is rather counting on a gradual rise in rates, limited at first, in an still uncertain macroeconomic context.
For shippers, this means that the period of “maximum bargaining power” is probably coming to an end. Multi-year contracts will need to incorporate finer revision clauses, linked to the evolution of operating costs (labor, fuel, financing) but also to service quality indicators. Carriers, for their part, are encouraged to take advantage of the current window to clean up their financial structure, modernize their fleet, and invest in digital technology to optimize their route plans.
FreightWaves finally emphasizes that this progressive normalization of American trucking will have direct repercussions on the entire North American logistics chain: intermodal rail/road balance, capacity of LTL operators, and shippers’ trade-offs between air express, premium road, and fast maritime solutions on certain coastal routes.
