Ocean shipping is once again being forced to adapt to a market shaped by conflict, changing trade patterns and renewed questions over profitability.
Trade, far more than military power alone, remains one of the primary engines behind global influence. And because ocean shipping sits at the centre of cross-border commerce, disruption at sea continues to send powerful shockwaves through the rest of the supply chain.
The latest trigger is Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz to most tanker traffic. Yet while oil remains a central concern, the bigger threat to wider markets may now come from financial pressure rather than fuel alone. Attention has turned to the 10-year US Treasury bond — the same benchmark that reportedly pushed President Donald Trump to step back from Liberation Day tariffs last April after yields moved above 4.60%. With yields currently at 4.40% and the war continuing, some analysts believe they could climb again toward 4.50% or even 4.60%, creating another major stress test for already fragile market resilience.
Fuel prices, however, still matter deeply for transport planning, especially at a moment when shippers are finalising annual ocean freight contracts.
So far, the full impact of the war on container shipping has not yet been completely felt, largely because only 2% to 3% of total global volume moves through the Middle East. Even so, that still represents around 6 million containers — enough to rank as the equivalent of the world’s second-largest carrier behind MSC, which moved 7.2 million containers.
The pressure is compounded by the fact that the region’s two most important maritime corridors are now effectively disrupted at the same time. While thousands of mariners and hundreds of vessels remain trapped in the Persian Gulf, major container lines have not resumed scheduled services through the Red Sea and Suez Canal since late 2023. This marks the first time that the two busiest Middle East trade routes have both been closed simultaneously.
The Red Sea disruption began when Houthi rebels in Yemen, backed by Iran, attacked merchant shipping in support of Palestinians in Gaza. Those attacks forced carriers to reroute vessels around southern Africa, generating tens of billions of dollars in windfall profits in 2024 through longer voyages and higher freight earnings.
The Houthis are now threatening to close the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait between the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden as well. Yet at this stage, their threats appear more influential than their current operational reach. Extensive bombing campaigns by the Biden administration in 2024 and by Trump in 2025 failed to eliminate the militia. As Iran’s internal problems deepened through 2025, its support for the Houthis appeared to weaken, prompting the group to focus attacks more directly on Israel. Still, the threat alone has been enough to keep liners away from the Red Sea just as some were beginning to test a return ahead of the Iran conflict.
At the same time, trade flows have been shifting under the influence of tariffs. In the US, a greater share of Asian imports has been diverted through Mexico and Canada, increasingly entering North America by rail and truck. That has reduced volumes through the Southern California gateway, although resilient consumer demand has helped Los Angeles and Long Beach continue posting solid results.
In Europe, China’s export drive in 2025 has pushed a wave of goods into the region, turning port congestion into a persistent feature of the market.
All of this has played into a more difficult commercial environment for carriers. Global economic uncertainty, evolving trade flows and a flood of new vessel capacity pushed some of the industry’s largest players from profit back into loss during 2025. In that sense, the shipping cycle has returned in full force after the pandemic boom, reviving the longstanding question of whether ocean shipping can ever consistently deliver stable profits.
Some companies are already responding strategically. Last week, MSC acquired 50% of South Korea’s Sinikor and its fleet of 78 very large crude carriers, giving the Swiss group direct exposure to the largest segment in oil shipping. The move diversifies MSC beyond the cyclicality of container shipping and appears less like a short-term gamble than a longer-term repositioning.
Maersk, meanwhile, is pushing deeper into delivery logistics through Maersk Parcel, seeking to close the final gap between warehouse and end customer. The service offers shippers a single platform, with one label, one invoice, one rate card and one tracking experience.
Consolidation is also accelerating. In February, 10th-ranked Zim agreed to be acquired by fifth-ranked Hapag-Lloyd in a deal valued at $4.2 billion. The transaction will not lift the German carrier above Ocean Network Express in overall capacity rankings, but it will significantly strengthen its scale and deepen its presence on trans-Pacific routes. Its market share between Asia and the United States is expected to rise from 7% to 12%.
There is now growing speculation that further consolidation could follow among smaller carriers lacking the capital needed to survive a more complex and volatile market.
