The first quarter is shaping up to be another difficult reporting period for US truckload carriers, but analysts increasingly believe it could also mark the final phase of the sector’s long earnings slump. Although fuel volatility and severe winter weather hurt margins early in 2026, sentiment for the full year remains comparatively constructive.
The quarter was hit by two major winter storms, causing terminal closures and network delays, while diesel prices surged through the final 11 weeks of the period. That rise created short-term pressure even for large carriers with fuel surcharge mechanisms, because of the lag between higher pump prices and surcharge recovery. Analysts said the mismatch compressed margins, particularly when fleets were also absorbing deadhead miles, idle time and fuel bought at retail truck stops rather than in bulk.
Morgan Stanley cut first-quarter earnings estimates for truckload carriers by low- to high-single-digit percentages, pointing to weather disruption and war-related fuel headwinds. Even so, analyst Ravi Shanker kept his broader 2026 outlook positive, noting that supply has tightened as English-language enforcement, non-domiciled CDL restrictions, pressure on ELD providers and driver school closures have all reduced available capacity.
Deutsche Bank made similar downward revisions for the quarter, especially for one-way networks affected by poor asset utilisation and severe fuel-price swings. But it too kept a favorable view of the sector’s medium-term prospects, arguing that continued capacity contraction, made worse by high fuel costs for smaller operators, could support a stronger pricing environment later in the year.
Analysts also flagged a second-quarter tailwind if fuel prices stabilise or ease, allowing lagged surcharges to work in carriers’ favour. Manufacturing indicators have also turned slightly more supportive, with the PMI remaining above 50 for a third straight month. Even so, rising oil prices remain a risk to consumer demand and freight volumes. For now, the sector’s short-term results may disappoint, but the consensus increasingly points to improving conditions in the second half of 2026.
