LONG BEACH — Instability in U.S. trade policy is emerging as one of the most significant obstacles facing American exporters, according to industry leaders speaking at the TPM26 conference hosted by the Journal of Commerce.
Peter Friedmann, executive director of the Agriculture Transportation Coalition (AgTC), warned that exporters are grappling with a mix of geopolitical risk, regulatory uncertainty and tariff volatility that threatens the competitiveness of U.S. agricultural commodities on global markets.
Speaking during the event, Friedmann highlighted the growing concern among exporters that the escalating conflict involving Iran could disrupt shipments of products such as hay and other agricultural goods destined for Middle Eastern buyers. Ocean carriers have already begun imposing substantial surcharges on shipments entering the region, particularly for cargo originating outside the United States.
Similar cost increases were seen in 2024 following a surge in attacks on commercial vessels transiting the Red Sea. At the time, the U.S. Federal Maritime Commission (FMC) initially waived the standard 30-day notice requirement for certain surcharges. However, AgTC successfully pushed regulators to reinstate the rule, forcing carriers to provide advance notification before implementing the additional fees.
Friedmann said he has already contacted all FMC commissioners to warn that similar surcharges could reappear as tensions escalate in the Middle East.
According to him, regulators appear more cautious this time. Rather than approving emergency surcharges immediately, the FMC is expected to examine whether carriers are facing legitimate cost increases before allowing them to pass charges on to shippers.
“They’re going to study it first and determine whether there are additional costs for ocean carriers,” Friedmann explained. “That’s an important first step.”
However, uncertainty extends far beyond shipping surcharges. U.S. exporters are also facing confusion following a recent Supreme Court ruling that invalidated emergency tariffs imposed by the Trump administration. The decision did not clarify whether companies that paid those tariffs would be eligible for refunds, nor has the federal government announced any repayment mechanism.
Friedmann noted that previous rulings offer little reassurance. When the Supreme Court blocked the Harbor Maintenance Tax on exports years ago, it took the government four to five years to reimburse affected companies.
Large corporations typically have the financial capacity to navigate complex legal processes and absorb the costs associated with delayed refunds. Smaller exporters, however, may struggle to pursue claims or survive prolonged financial uncertainty.
Friedmann also warned that the political future of tariffs may soon become a central issue in the United States. As mid-term elections approach in November, candidates emphasizing affordability and inflation could challenge the administration’s continued reliance on tariffs.
Despite the Supreme Court ruling, the administration recently announced plans to introduce a new 10% tariff for a period of 150 days under a different legal authority.
For exporters, the constant policy shifts create a difficult operating environment. Retaliatory tariffs imposed by foreign governments remain a major concern.
“A lot of the problem is our tariffs on other products,” Friedmann said. “But a lot of the problem is the retaliation from other countries.”
He suggested that some of those retaliatory tariffs may quietly begin to disappear, although such changes are unlikely to be widely publicized by policymakers.
Additional policy initiatives could also add pressure on exporters. Proposed port fees targeting Chinese-built or Chinese-operated vessels could return later this year after a one-year suspension. Meanwhile, the administration’s Maritime Action Plan includes potential fees on imports transported on non-U.S. ships, as well as cargo preference rules favoring American-built vessels.
For industries operating on tight margins, even minor increases in transport costs can determine whether exports remain viable.
“In global commodity markets, we cannot be even one cent above the international price,” Friedmann said. “If transportation costs push us beyond that threshold, we simply lose the market.”
