The conflict involving the US, Israel and Iran is now reshaping ocean shipping far beyond the Middle East, with industry leaders warning that the consequences will be felt across global trade lanes.
Speaking at TPM26 by S&P Global in Long Beach, Vespucci Maritime chief executive Lars Jensen said the idea of a near-term normalization in Red Sea shipping has effectively disappeared. What many in the industry had expected just weeks ago — a gradual return of services through the Red Sea and a release of additional capacity during the summer — is no longer realistic under current conditions.
The latest disruption began after military strikes against Iran on February 28, prompting carriers across both air and ocean sectors to suspend or adjust services moving through the region. In the first week of March alone, more than 700 vessels were reportedly backed up as the Strait of Hormuz remained closed, affecting around 10% of the global container fleet, according to comments made by Ocean Network Express chief executive Jeremy Nixon during the same conference.
Jensen said the scale of the disruption is serious, although still below the levels seen during the pandemic or even the earlier Red Sea crisis. Even so, the consequences for Gulf countries are severe, particularly because there is unlikely to be sufficient overland transport capacity to absorb the cargo displaced by maritime disruption.
He estimated that around 2m teu could be affected, based on cargo already on vessels from Gulf ports or booked over the next 90 days. Even if the situation eases quickly, he warned that bottlenecks and additional charges are likely to remain, with carriers expected to introduce emergency surcharges wherever possible.
The wider effect is also strategic. If the crisis drags on for another year or more, ocean carriers may respond in much the same way they did during the Red Sea emergency — by redesigning schedules, extending sailing distances and relying on alternative routings. From a purely global supply-demand perspective, Jensen said the shift is still relatively limited, but regionally, the shock is substantial.
Perhaps the clearest message from TPM26 was that hopes for a meaningful Red Sea comeback have once again been postponed. For shippers, that means more uncertainty, more cost pressure and another delay in any return to pre-crisis routing patterns.
