Tanker brokers, charterers and market analysts are grappling with an oil shipping environment they describe as unprecedented, as the Iran conflict continues to disrupt flows, trap vessels and drive freight rates sharply higher.
Speaking at the Tanker Charterers and Brokers Forum during CMA Shipping 2026, industry participants painted a picture of a market clouded by uncertainty, where each new development seems to reveal another layer of complexity.
Erik Broekhuizen, lead tanker analyst at Poten & Partners, told the audience that the word “unprecedented” is fully justified. He pointed to the removal of 20 million barrels of oil from the market as a shock the industry has not faced before, saying that participants are struggling not only to understand what comes next, but also how the situation might eventually be resolved.
Alan Rowe, who heads projects at broker MJLF, warned that the longer the conflict continues, the more the knock-on effects will compound. Refinery shutdowns, limited bunker availability and disruptions in refined product supply all create additional layers of market stress.
The LPG market is also under pressure. Peter Hadjipateras of Dorian LPG noted that roughly one-third of global LPG volumes pass through the Strait of Hormuz. He said Iran’s role in those exports, especially through the sanctioned “dark fleet,” is significant. At the same time, he suggested that displacement of vessels can support VLGC market conditions, leaving his company relatively optimistic that rates will eventually correct upward.
Oliver Ge, head of research at McQuilling, highlighted one of the most immediate drivers of the current freight spike: the number of tankers effectively trapped inside the Arabian Gulf. He estimated that around 64 VLCCs were stuck there, representing about 8% of the global VLCC fleet. That sudden tightening in available tonnage, he said, is a major reason rates are rising so quickly.
Ge also raised concerns about storage limitations for exporters such as Iraq and Kuwait, which have only limited onshore capacity. Some VLCCs already in the Gulf have reportedly been fixed as floating storage to help maintain production.
On the crude side, Broekhuizen said the market has become extremely distorted. Some quoted freight levels, particularly out of the Arabian Gulf, remain more theoretical than executable because of the unusual conditions. Even so, freight elsewhere is strong, with VLCC earnings reaching into the hundreds of thousands of dollars per day and other tanker segments not far behind.
Rowe said the market is robust in the short term but much harder to interpret over a longer horizon. He pointed to “dark fleet” movements near Hormuz and questioned how governments may respond, particularly if sanctioned barrels continue heading toward China.
In gas shipping, Hadjipateras said market shifts are already becoming visible less than two weeks into the conflict. India is facing supply shortages, and replacement volumes may increasingly come from the United States, given limited availability from West Africa. That shift, however, could create another chokepoint at the Panama Canal as more oil, LPG and LNG cargoes move from the US Gulf toward Asia.
Earlier in the event, Panama Canal Authority Administrator Ricaurte Vasquez said the canal had recovered from the 2024 drought and was ready to accommodate additional demand. Even so, participants made clear that any rerouting of global flows on this scale will come with operational consequences.
The overall tone of the panel was one of deep uncertainty. As Rowe put it, every time analysts examine one aspect of the current crisis, another one emerges behind it. For tanker markets, the challenge is no longer simply forecasting rates. It is trying to understand a moving system in which storage, geopolitics, fleet positioning and trade flows are all shifting at once.
