US resin exporters are seeing a noticeable rise in overseas demand as the war in the Middle East disrupts one of the world’s most important plastics supply hubs. Yet while the immediate impact has been strong, the longer-term outlook will depend on how long the conflict continues and whether North American producers can raise output enough to meet global demand.
According to maritime visibility provider Vizion, export container bookings for resins reached 6,191 on March 16. That is well above the roughly 3,500 to 4,500 daily bookings typically recorded throughout 2026. Earlier in the month, during the first week of March, resin export bookings totaled 22,653 — the strongest weekly figure since the final week of January. Most bookings are still concentrated during weekdays.
The surge comes as Iran’s attacks on commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz have effectively cut Middle Eastern resin producers off from global markets. That is a major shock for the plastics industry: the Middle East represents 15% of global polyethylene supply, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence. Polyethylene remains the world’s most widely traded resin.
The fallout has already been felt in the US pricing environment. Platts reported Thursday that US polyethylene prices have tripled since Feb. 25 and are now trading between $1,268 and $1,290 per metric ton, depending on the grade. The agency said the increase reflects a profound shift in global supply patterns, with the US effectively emerging as the leading alternative source of supply after the Strait of Hormuz closure.
Asia and Europe are currently the regions most exposed to the disruption in Middle Eastern resin exports, according to Shruthi Vangipuram, analyst at Wood Mackenzie. Although both regions have domestic resin production, they rely on crude oil-based feedstocks that have also become significantly more expensive. She said Southeast Asia, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan have been among the hardest hit, with producers in those markets struggling to secure feedstock and operating rates falling sharply.
Vangipuram estimates that resin plants in Asia and Europe are now running at about 70% of capacity because of higher crude-linked feedstock costs. By comparison, US producers are operating closer to 90% utilization. She noted that American manufacturers could postpone maintenance to keep production elevated through the second quarter, and in some cases lift utilization to 95% or even 98%, although that still would not fully compensate for the global supply gap.
The commercial opportunity for US exporters will also depend on where pricing arbitrage makes the most sense. From a shipping standpoint, capacity from the US to Asia is available. A third-party logistics executive said backhaul utilization for most ocean carriers on that trade is around 50%. Spot rates for dry freight from the US Gulf to Asia are currently between $500 and $700 per standard-sized container, while a 20-foot box typically used for resins costs around 80% of that level.
On the trans-Atlantic trade, rates have remained stable. Xeneta said shipping a 20-foot container from the US Gulf to Northern Europe is hovering near $1,100. From Southeast Atlantic ports, the same rate has risen from just over $700 at the start of the year to $757 this week, partly because carriers have been removing ships and port calls from trans-Atlantic services, which is tightening available capacity.
For now, outbound US exporters are not facing major booking delays, with vessel space generally available about two weeks ahead. The bigger risk lies elsewhere: fuel surcharges linked to the Middle East conflict, along with the possibility of a general rate increase in April.
Still, freight rates and vessel space are only part of the story. Vangipuram said the real determinant of future export flows will be destination pricing. Asian prices, in particular, may still need to climb further before buyers there are willing to pull significant additional resin from the US. With a four- to six-week lead time for imports, Asian buyers are unlikely to make aggressive moves unless they become convinced the conflict will drag on.
Europe appears more likely to move first. As the second-largest market for US resins after South America, Europe has already seen benchmark polyethylene prices jump by about one-third since the end of February. Given the shorter voyage times and more favorable freight economics, Vangipuram believes Europe will probably be the first destination to attract additional US cargoes.
In other words, while Asian demand may look urgent on paper, the Atlantic may ultimately offer US exporters the clearest and fastest commercial opening.
