Global air cargo capacity has fallen below expectations in 2026, as ongoing disruption in the Middle East continues to impact one of the world’s most strategic logistics corridors.
According to analysis from Aevean, the industry has already lost around 1% of its projected annual capacity growth. While a ceasefire in the Gulf has brought short-term stability, a full recovery is expected to take time.
Data shows that capacity from key Gulf airports dropped dramatically following the onset of the conflict. From relatively stable levels of 18,000 to 22,000 tonnes, volumes fell to near zero within days.
Since early March, a gradual recovery has been observed, with capacity climbing back to between 9,000 and 11,000 tonnes. However, levels remain well below pre-disruption trends.
The Middle East plays a central role in east-west trade flows, and disruption has had immediate global consequences. According to WorldACD, air cargo capacity to the region has declined by more than 50% year-on-year in recent weeks.
At the same time, rate volatility has intensified. Flexport reports that airfreight rates from Vietnam to Europe have nearly doubled to $6.27 per kilogram, while routes such as Los Angeles to Paris have seen more moderate increases of around 8%.
Shippers are adapting by exploring alternative routing strategies. In some cases, cargo is now being moved from Asia to Europe via Los Angeles, combining ocean and air transport to balance cost and speed.
These shifts are driven by a combination of high fuel prices, constrained capacity and disruption to key corridors such as the Strait of Hormuz, resulting in higher costs and more complex supply chain configurations.
