Ocean freight rates on major trade routes from Asia are beginning to ease after months of sharp increases, but prices remain significantly higher than they were at the start of the year. According to shipping intelligence firm Xeneta, spot rates have started to soften across several key routes, although the decline is happening much more slowly than the earlier surge.
Emily Stausboll, Senior Shipping Analyst at Xeneta, said spot rates slipped by around 1% on routes from the Far East to the U.S. West Coast, Northern Europe and the Mediterranean, while remaining unchanged on services to the U.S. East Coast. She expects further declines at the beginning of August, but noted that freight rates typically fall much more gradually than they rise during periods of market disruption.
The dramatic increase in prices began after the outbreak of the Iran conflict on February 28, which quickly disrupted global supply chains despite taking place far from many of the world’s busiest shipping lanes. At the same time, importers accelerated shipments to stay ahead of the Trump administration’s new tariffs, which came into effect this week, creating another wave of demand that pushed freight rates even higher.
Since the start of the crisis, spot rates from the Far East to the U.S. West Coast have climbed 231%, reaching $6,225 per forty-foot equivalent unit (FEU). Rates to the U.S. East Coast have increased even further, rising 234% to $8,846 per FEU.
Other major trade lanes also experienced substantial increases, although they were less pronounced. Freight rates from the Far East to Northern Europe are up 135% since late February, while services to the Mediterranean have risen 96% over the same period.
Stausboll noted that some carriers have started introducing blank sailings, cancelling or postponing scheduled voyages between Asia and North America as demand begins to slow. However, she believes shipping lines remain reluctant to remove significant capacity because doing so could allow competitors to capture additional cargo volumes while freight rates are still highly profitable.
The slowdown in the market also suggests that this year’s peak shipping season may have ended earlier than usual. Traditionally, peak season runs through October, but weakening demand has shortened the cycle. That’s a stark contrast to 2025, when uncertainty around U.S. tariff policies delayed peak-season shipping as importers waited before moving cargo.
At the same time, shipping lines have struggled to implement the mid-July rate increases and peak-season surcharges they had planned, as softer demand has reduced their pricing power.
According to Xeneta, carriers are likely to use the renewed tensions between Iran and the United States, along with higher bunker fuel costs, to justify additional surcharges and slow the pace of declining freight rates. However, Stausboll pointed out that operational conditions have changed very little because most container vessels had already been avoiding the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea before the latest escalation.
Meanwhile, both Maersk and CMA CGM have resumed services through the Suez Canal and the Red Sea. However, concerns remain after Yemen’s Houthi forces reportedly resumed attacks on tankers this week for the first time since September, raising fresh questions about the security of the route.
Despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, Xeneta believes broader market conditions are becoming increasingly difficult for carriers to ignore. As new shipping capacity enters the market and cargo demand continues to cool, freight rates are expected to face further downward pressure in the coming weeks, even if geopolitical risks temporarily slow that decline.
