The U.S. Bank Freight Payment Index showed the National Shipment Index dropped 1.1% to 75.1 in the second quarter, the second consecutive quarterly decline. The National Spending Index climbed 6.4% to 230.4, indicating the ongoing increase in the cost of obtaining transportation.
Shipment volumes fell 2.8% versus the second quarter of 2025, reversing the modest 0.6% year-over-year gain in the first quarter and ending a four-year streak of year-over-year gains. Meanwhile, freight spending jumped 28.1%, highlighting the widening gap between transportation demand and costs.
“Rising transportation costs were in part driven by higher fuel prices, but fuel costs were not the main driver of rising shipper costs,” said American Trucking Associations (ATA) Senior Vice President and Chief Economist Bob Costello.
While fuel costs remained elevated during the quarter, truck capacity constraints had a far greater impact on freight pricing.
Data from DAT Freight & Analytics showed average fuel costs reached 75 cents per mile during the second quarter, an increase of 47.1% from the previous quarter and 78.6% higher than a year earlier. However, diesel prices eased toward the end of the quarter, falling from an April peak above $5.64 per gallon to approximately $4.67 per gallon.
The more significant factor was the continued reduction in available truck capacity following more than three years of weak freight conditions that forced many small, medium-sized and large carriers to reduce fleets or exit the market altogether.
Industry participants also point to stricter regulatory enforcement as another contributor to tightening capacity. Increased enforcement of English-language proficiency (ELP) requirements, revised eligibility rules for non-domiciled commercial driver’s licenses (CDLs) and expanded oversight of CDL training providers have reduced the number of eligible drivers in certain markets, bringing available capacity closer to existing freight demand.
As a result, carriers have benefited from stronger pricing despite only modest improvements in freight volumes.
Spot market rates reflected that tightening environment. According to DAT, average spot truckload rates reached $3.02 per mile during the second quarter, rising 18.9% from the previous quarter after already increasing 11.9% during the first quarter. Spot rates were 33% higher than the fourth quarter of 2025 and 41.1% above levels recorded one year earlier.
Contract rates also increased, averaging $3.06 per mile, up 13% from the first quarter and 20.9% year over year. Neither figure includes fuel surcharges.
The gap between spot and contract pricing narrowed dramatically to just 4 cents per mile, compared with 39 cents during the same period last year. Because spot rates typically lead contract pricing, analysts expect additional upward pressure on contract freight rates as new agreements are negotiated.
The Southwest experienced some of the strongest pricing pressure in the country. Regional shipment volumes declined 0.6% from the first quarter and 20.2% year over year, while shipper spending increased 11.2% sequentially and 39.9% annually.
Among the many reasons for the imbalance were tighter truck availability and increased enforcement focused on potential cabotage violations by Mexican B-1 visa drivers. Greater coordination between the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and the Department of Transportation (DOT) resulted in numerous visa cancellations during the quarter, reducing available cross-border trucking capacity in the region.
At the same time, broader economic conditions remained mixed. Housing starts across the Southern United States declined 14.4% from the previous quarter and 9.6% year over year, while businesses surveyed by the Dallas Federal Reserve reported softer retail sales linked to higher gasoline prices and weaker consumer spending.
According to Bobby Holland, Director of Freight Business Analytics at U.S. But the Southwest Bank showed how the tightening of truck capacity can cause freight costs to rise dramatically, even as shipment volumes continue to fall.
The nation had a mixed performance in regional shipment. The Southeast posted the strongest quarterly growth, with volumes increasing 0.9%, supported in part by data center construction projects in Northern Virginia and Atlanta. The West recorded a 0.5% increase, the Northeast remained unchanged, while the Midwest experienced the largest quarterly decline at 3.7%.
Freight spending, however, increased almost everywhere. The West led with a 12% quarterly increase, followed by the Southwest at 11.2% and the Southeast at 10%. The Northeast recorded its seventh consecutive quarterly increase, while the Midwest was the only region to post a slight decline, slipping 0.8%. Compared with a year earlier, every region recorded spending growth exceeding 20%, led by the Southwest’s 39.9% increase.
Another development during the quarter was the U.S. The Supreme Court’s decision in the Montgomery v. Caribe Transport II, LLC case, issued May 14, 2026, clarified that freight brokers could be held to a higher standard of law in regard to carrier selection. While the decision had little immediate impact on the market, some brokers have begun to reevaluate their carrier qualification processes.
Although freight spending remains approximately 17% below the record levels reached during the second quarter of 2022, the latest data suggests that transportation costs are continuing to rise as truck capacity tightens.
Costello said the underlying trend remains clear: after several years of excess capacity, the trucking industry is entering a much tighter operating environment where limited truck availability—not stronger freight demand—is increasingly driving higher transportation rates for shippers.
