The container shipping market could face a significant supply and demand imbalance in 2027, with vessel capacity potentially reaching levels up to 10% above demand if services fully return to the Suez Canal, according to a new analysis from Bimco.
The shipping association said an acceleration in vessel deliveries, combined with continued subdued activity in the vessel recycling market, could put increasing pressure on the market next year unless current disruptions persist.
Container shipping is still benefiting from a series of operational disruptions in 2026. Typhoons have generated congestion in Asia that has subsequently spread to Europe and the US, while the Panama Canal has restricted transits because of low water levels associated with El Niño. At the same time, conflict in the Middle East is contributing to higher inflation and increased uncertainty worldwide.
“Disruptions and strong growth in head-haul trades continue to support the container shipping market in 2026, but accelerating fleet growth could weaken the supply/demand balance in 2027,” said Bimco chief shipping analyst Niels Rasmussen.
Bimco examined two potential scenarios for 2027. The first assumes that the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, while the second assumes normal transit conditions in the Arabian Gulf. Under both scenarios, fleet capacity is expected to expand faster than container demand.
“In 2026, the balance remains supported by continued Cape of Good Hope rerouting, strong growth in trades not involving the Persian Gulf while some ships remain unavailable within the Persian Gulf,” Rasmussen explained.
According to Bimco data, global container volumes increased by 5.1% during the first seven months of 2026 compared with the same period in 2025. Growth in South and Western Asia, however, was constrained by the conflict across the Middle East, which has restricted access to both the Arabian Gulf and the Red Sea.
“Head-haul and regional volumes increased by 6.3% while volumes in back-haul trades did not grow. Ship demand has consequently again grown faster than overall cargo volumes,” Rasmussen said.
Fleet expansion is already set to accelerate. The current container ship orderbook represents 42% of the existing global fleet of 34 million teu, a level Bimco believes will likely push capacity growth ahead of cargo volumes.
The association said the Middle East conflict is also affecting energy costs and consumer confidence in import markets, while Chinese retail sales have been impacted as well.
“Unless Strait of Hormuz transit conditions normalise, continued oil supply constraints and higher oil prices could weaken global economic growth and container volume growth in 2027,” Rasmussen said.
Bimco expects vessel capacity to grow by 4.6% in 2026 and by a further 9% in 2027.
At the same time, container shipping lines have continued to move tonnage back toward the Suez Canal route, despite what Bimco describes as an apparently increased Houthi threat.
Should the Red Sea route eventually return to its pre-war transit levels, Bimco estimates that vessel demand could fall to a level as much as 10% below available vessel capacity.
“While the supply/demand balance has strengthened during 2026, we expect that increased supply growth will drive a weakening of the markets during 2027, especially if a return to Suez Canal routings weakens ship demand,” Rasmussen said.
