The air cargo industry has demonstrated resilience in January 2025, with rates on key east-west routes remaining higher than the same period last year despite a month-on-month decline. Factors such as an early Lunar New Year and a surge in pre-tariff shipments have supported demand during what is typically a quieter season for airfreight.
Rate Performance Across Major Routes
On the Hong Kong to North America route, rates declined by 16.8% compared to December, settling at $5.60 per kilogram. However, this figure remains 7.3% above January 2024 levels. Similarly, rates on the Hong Kong to Europe route dropped 14.7% month-on-month to $4.68 per kilogram, marking a 13.6% year-on-year increase.
Historically, air cargo rates have experienced average declines of 14-15% during this period due to seasonal trends. This year’s performance, however, was bolstered by heightened activity from businesses advancing shipments ahead of anticipated tariff increases.
Influence of Pre-Tariff Shipments
With changes in U.S. trade policy, companies rushed to expedite shipments from China to avoid potential tariff hikes. Kathy Liu, Vice President for Global Sales and Marketing at Dimerco Express Group, noted:
“The shift in U.S. administration policies led to a surge in shipping activity from late December into early January, which is usually a slower period.”
This surge contributed to a milder than expected drop in tonnage and rates, particularly in the transpacific trade lane.
Impact of Early Lunar New Year
The earlier-than-usual Lunar New Year also played a role in sustaining air cargo demand. Intra-Asia markets were particularly active as businesses transferred raw materials to manufacturing hubs in Taiwan, Singapore, Vietnam, and India ahead of the holiday season.
E-commerce Trends
While e-commerce typically sees a post-December slowdown, the decline in activity this January was less severe. Data from WorldACD highlighted a 33% drop in tonnage between December and early January, slightly above the 30% decline recorded last year.
Conclusion
The combination of pre-tariff shipments and an early Lunar New Year has underscored the adaptability of the air cargo sector. Despite seasonal challenges, rates have remained robust, signaling a promising start to the year for logistics stakeholders.
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