By Maria Kalamatas | May 9, 2025
Doha, QATAR —
Global air freight isn’t in decline — but it’s under pressure. In May 2025, the numbers show volume stability, yet operators are feeling a different reality: rising costs, fierce competition, and less room to breathe.
“We’re carrying about the same as last year,” says Kareem Abbas, who oversees flight logistics for a Gulf-based airline. “But the margin on every kilo is thinner.”
Stable volume, shrinking profit
According to the latest data from the International Air Cargo Association (TIACA), total global air cargo volume in April remained flat year-over-year. Demand held, especially on Asia–Middle East and Europe–Africa routes.
But carriers report that yields are down, largely due to increased belly capacity from resurgent passenger flights and ongoing rate competition among integrated players.
“There’s more space in the sky,” Abbas says. “But that doesn’t mean it’s easier to make money.”
The price of speed
Fuel costs remain volatile. Ground handling fees have crept up across major hubs. And in markets like Kenya, Turkey, and Indonesia, forwarders report having to absorb last-minute charges to keep delivery times intact.
The result: air cargo is still the fastest option, but it’s becoming harder to price it competitively without sacrificing service quality.
Customers want more — for less
Shippers expect door-to-door tracking, CO₂ data, and fast customs clearance — all baked into tight lead times and tighter rates.
“The expectations haven’t changed,” Abbas explains. “Only the margins have.”
Some forwarders are shifting strategy, offering hybrid solutions that combine air and road, or prioritizing higher-margin verticals like pharmaceuticals and time-critical parts.
Outlook: resilience over expansion
Most carriers aren’t planning to cut capacity — but few are expanding aggressively either. Instead, 2025 is shaping up as a year of margin management, not volume growth.
“You don’t need more planes,” Abbas adds. “You need better planning.”
Conclusion
Air cargo may not be booming, but it’s holding. In 2025, the real test isn’t how much freight gets flown — it’s whether the math behind each shipment still makes sense.
