Self-driving trucks could deliver sweeping benefits across the US freight economy over the next decade, according to a new report commissioned by Aurora Innovation and carried out by the Steer Group.
The study argues that, under an accelerated deployment scenario, autonomous trucking could generate $9 billion in annual consumer savings, contribute $70 billion to gross domestic product and prevent nearly 500 road deaths every year by 2035.
Even at today’s early stage of development, the report says the autonomous trucking sector already supports 17,000 jobs and $3.3 billion in total economic output. By 2035, it projects that around 170,000 self-driving trucks could be operating on US highways — equivalent to roughly 15% of the market — collectively driving 33 billion miles per year.
Aurora chief executive Chris Urmson said autonomous trucking has the potential to strengthen the US economy, improve road safety and make supply chains more resilient and efficient.
One of the report’s strongest claims relates to safety. Large trucks are involved in one out of every eight fatal crashes on US roads, contributing to around 5,300 deaths annually. The Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration attributes 87% of at-fault truck crashes to driver error, including inattention, poor decision-making, fatigue and physical impairment.
In that context, the report estimates that self-driving technology could prevent 490 fatalities, 8,800 injuries and 23,000 crashes per year by 2035. Measured against US Department of Transportation standards, those reductions would represent $9.4 billion in annual socioeconomic safety benefits.
The financial benefits for carriers could also be substantial. The analysis forecasts a 40% reduction in insurance premiums, equivalent to $1.4 billion in annual savings. Aurora says its trucks can detect hazards more than 450 meters ahead and identify pedestrians 11 seconds faster than human drivers at highway speed at night.
Supporters of autonomy also point to evidence from adjacent sectors. Waymo, for example, has reported a 90% reduction in serious and fatal crashes compared with human drivers over 125 million miles in San Francisco, Los Angeles, Phoenix and Austin.
The productivity case may be just as compelling. Human drivers in the US are limited by hours-of-service rules to 11 hours of driving within a 14-hour work window, followed by 10 consecutive hours off duty. Autonomous trucks do not face those restrictions.
That difference could transform equipment utilization. On a 1,000-mile lane such as Fort Worth to Phoenix, a conventional truck may cover between 500 and 750 miles before a required break, depending on available driver hours. A self-driving vehicle could complete the route in a single day and begin the return leg immediately, effectively more than doubling productivity.
The report also projects 32% fuel savings through smoother acceleration, optimized speed control and better route management. Across the industry, that could translate into $5.7 billion in annual fuel savings and 1.6 billion gallons conserved. Lower emissions would add another $730 million in public health benefits.
Because trucking underpins the movement of most goods consumed in the US, the study argues that lower transport costs would eventually flow through to households in the form of $9 billion in increased purchasing power each year.
On employment, the report presents autonomy not as a pure replacement story, but as a shift in job types. It argues that while trucking continues to struggle with driver turnover and a shortage of qualified labor, self-driving technology could create demand for higher-skilled roles in software engineering, advanced manufacturing and specialized operations. It adds that 82% of autonomous vehicle workers already earn above the national median wage, and many of those jobs do not require a college degree.
Aurora also announced a $1 million commitment through its Aurora Works program to help ensure workforce opportunities scale alongside the technology.
The rollout is expected to begin in Sun Belt states including Texas, Arizona, Florida and Georgia, with a broader national network targeted by 2030. The biggest obstacle, the report says, remains regulation. States that establish supportive legal frameworks are expected to attract more investment, while others may fall behind.
The study concludes that Level 4 autonomous trucking could represent one of the most significant productivity gains in an industry responsible for moving more than 60% of domestic freight tonnage in the United States.
