The global air cargo market lost some momentum in July, with the sharpest pressure coming from the China, Hong Kong and Europe trade lane. Cargo volumes between China and Europe have now declined for six consecutive weeks, as new European Union import rules introduced on 1 July increased costs and added complexity, particularly for low-value shipments.
According to the latest figures from WorldACD Market Data, chargeable weight from mainland China and Hong Kong to Europe fell by a further 5% and 3%, respectively, week on week during week 31, covering 27 July to 2 August. Compared with the same period last year, volumes were down 7% from mainland China and 24% from Hong Kong.
Hong Kong has been particularly affected. Across July, tonnages from Hong Kong to Europe fell 19% compared with June and were 24% below July 2025 levels. The decline comes amid the EU’s decision to end tariff-free treatment for goods valued below €150, a change that has had a particularly strong impact on the e-commerce-driven Hong Kong market.
Mainland China has been more resilient. Volumes from China to Europe fell 3% month on month in July and were down 6% year on year. Combined tonnages from China and Hong Kong to Europe declined 9% compared with June and 12% from a year earlier.
China-Europe spot rates fall sharply
The decline in volumes has been accompanied by a significant correction in spot rates over the past six weeks.
From Hong Kong to Europe, the average spot rate fell from US$5.80 per kilo in week 25 in mid-to-late June to US$4.96 per kilo in week 31, representing a 15% decline.
The correction was even sharper from mainland China. Rates fell from US$5.43 per kilo in week 25 to US$3.86 per kilo in week 31, a drop of 29%.
The figures are based on more than 500,000 weekly transactions tracked by WorldACD.
Despite the decline, rates remain slightly above last year’s levels. In week 31, spot rates were still 2% higher year on year from mainland China and 7% higher from Hong Kong. However, the gap has narrowed substantially from the roughly 25% premium recorded during the previous three months.
Other Asian markets continue to show elevated rates. Spot prices to Europe remain 33% above last year’s levels from Taiwan, 39% higher from Vietnam and 32% higher from Thailand.
The sharp decline from China and Hong Kong has also pulled down the overall year-on-year increase in Asia Pacific-Europe spot rates. The growth rate fell from 39% in week 25 to just 17% in week 31.
Global rates remain 29% above last year
Across July, spot rates from Asia Pacific origins to all destinations declined 10% compared with June, reaching an average of US$4.75 per kilo. Despite the monthly correction, rates remained 29% higher than in July 2025.
Worldwide, the average spot rate stood at US$3.41 per kilo in July, down 8% from the previous month but still 29% above last year’s level.
All major air cargo origin regions recorded month-on-month declines in spot rates during July. However, all remained at least 20% above last year’s levels, with the exception of Central and South America, where rates were only 5% higher year on year.
Several factors continue to support elevated pricing. Higher jet fuel prices have pushed up fuel surcharges, while supply-demand imbalances remain in place. Disruptions linked to the US-Iran conflict have also affected the market, while demand for capacity remains strong in sectors such as AI-related data centre infrastructure.
Global air cargo growth slows in July
Despite the slowdown, worldwide air cargo tonnages increased in July. Chargeable weight rose 2% compared with June and was 5% higher than in July 2025.
However, the annual growth rate was significantly below June’s 9% increase.
Asia Pacific recorded the most notable slowdown, with year-on-year growth falling from 11% in June to 6% in July. European origins also weakened, with growth dropping from 8% to 3%. Middle East and South Asia, or MESA, saw an even sharper decline, with annual growth falling from 12% to 4%.
Capacity begins to recover
Global air cargo capacity edged up 1% week on week in week 31. The increase was largely supported by a 5% recovery in capacity to and from MESA markets, following another relative easing of tensions in the Gulf.
Capacity from Asia Pacific also rebounded 2% after another typhoon disrupted parts of the region.
Despite the recovery, MESA capacity remained around 11% below its week 7 level, before the US-Israel attacks on Iran. Gulf capacity improved in week 31 to 20% below pre-war levels, compared with a gap of around 27% in week 30.
The global air cargo market therefore remains in positive territory, but growth is clearly moderating. The correction in China-Europe volumes and rates, combined with new European trade requirements and geopolitical tensions, continues to reshape the balance between capacity, demand and costs across the air cargo industry.
