E-commerce air cargo flows from China, which have strongly supported airfreight growth in recent years, recorded a notable decline in March.
According to data from consultancy Aevean, e-commerce volumes exported by air from China fell by 6% year on year. Marco Bloemen, managing director of Aevean, noted that this was the first annual decline since June 2023.
The contraction was mainly driven by two factors: the removal by the United States of the de minimis exemption for low-value parcels from China, and the impact of the conflict between the United States and Iran in the Middle East at the end of March.
The decline was particularly sharp on routes to North America, where volumes fell by 24% year on year, while flows to the Middle East and South Asia dropped by 45%.
The situation could, however, improve in April, which marks the first truly like-for-like comparison since the end of the US de minimis exemption. In addition, the gradual reopening of Middle Eastern airspace, linked to peace talks and a fragile ceasefire, could help stabilise the market.
Not all regions were negatively affected. Volumes to Europe increased by 27%, while Latin America recorded a 31% rise. These gains, however, were not enough to offset the steep declines on other trade lanes.
The previous significant decline, in June 2023, was linked to slower economic conditions, inflation weighing on consumer spending, and rising trade tensions.
