By Eva Richardson | The Logistic News | March 28, 2025
The global freight market continues to experience downward pressure as container rates fall for the third consecutive month, raising concerns across the shipping and logistics sectors. Despite efforts by ocean carriers to stabilize pricing—particularly on high-volume trade routes such as Asia-Europe and Transpacific—the erosion of spot rates remains persistent.
As of late March, the cost to ship a 40-foot container had dipped below $3,300, according to the latest data from industry analysts. This represents a steep decline from the early 2024 peak and reflects growing overcapacity, shifting consumer demand, and fragile economic indicators across key exporting regions.
Carrier Strategies Failing to Hold the Line
Shipping alliances and independent carriers alike have introduced a mix of blank sailings, capacity withdrawals, and GRIs (General Rate Increases) in a bid to stem the slide. However, sources close to major freight operators suggest these efforts are proving ineffective in the face of reduced demand and aggressive pricing competition.
“The current strategy is akin to patching a sinking ship,” noted a senior executive from a European carrier, speaking on condition of anonymity. “Without a rebound in demand, even coordinated capacity cuts can only do so much.”
Asia-Europe Trade Routes Under Strain
Nowhere is the decline more visible than on the Asia-Europe lane, traditionally a bellwether for global container shipping health. Rates have dropped by more than 20% year-on-year, with shippers benefiting from lower costs while carriers see their margins tighten dramatically.
Freight forwarders are seizing the opportunity to renegotiate long-term contracts, while some exporters are shifting back from air to ocean as rate parity improves.
“We’re advising clients to lock in favorable ocean rates now,” said Martina Köhler, logistics strategist at RheinCargo Consulting. “However, they should remain cautious—volatility remains the name of the game.”
Broader Implications for the Supply Chain
The prolonged decline in freight rates is not just a shipping issue—it has ripple effects across the entire supply chain. Reduced revenue among carriers can lead to deferred investments in green shipping, digitalization, and port infrastructure, all of which are crucial for future resilience and sustainability.
Moreover, the imbalance between supply and demand is reintroducing uncertainty into logistics planning, particularly for retailers preparing for summer and holiday season inventory buildup.
“The risk here is not just market erosion—it’s strategic paralysis,” warned Dr. Yasser Mahmoud, senior fellow at the Global Maritime Institute. “When rates remain unstable, long-term supply chain planning suffers, and that undermines global trade flow predictability.”
Looking Ahead: Temporary Dip or Structural Shift?
Industry watchers are split on whether this is a short-term correction or the beginning of a longer structural decline. While some see a rebound in late 2025 driven by seasonal demand and inventory restocking, others believe that continued fleet growth, new ship deliveries, and a subdued global economic outlook will keep rates under pressure well into 2026.
Until then, freight buyers enjoy a buyer’s market, but carriers are in a precarious position—struggling to balance profitability, customer retention, and operational efficiency.
About the Author
Eva Richardson is a logistics and maritime journalist for The Logistic News. She covers global shipping trends, freight economics, and transportation policy from Europe and the Middle East.
