The shipping industry is increasingly finding itself trapped between multiple geopolitical flashpoints, at a time when war and confrontation appear to be returning as accepted tools of international dispute resolution.
That was the tone set during the opening panel of the Capital Link conference at Singapore Maritime Week, which took place against the backdrop of the US firing on and boarding an Iranian container ship.
For Dr. Gaby Bornheim, president of the German Shipowners’ Association (VDR), the industry is now living through a geopolitical nightmare. She said the problem is not just one crisis, but a series of crises unfolding simultaneously, with shipping caught in the middle of state-level power struggles and political confrontation.
The current situation in the Strait of Hormuz adds to ongoing tensions in the Red Sea and the Black Sea, she noted. In that environment, shipping is becoming harder to operate and more politicised, something the sector will have to adapt to.
Thomas A. Kazakos, secretary general of the International Chamber of Shipping (ICS), made a similar point. He said the industry must continue to adapt to new challenges, but stressed that the way forward depends on maintaining a stable international regulatory framework, preserving freedom of navigation, and ensuring an environment in which investors feel secure enough to keep backing the shipping sector.
For Sebastian von Hardenberg, president of InterManager, one of the most troubling developments is that world leaders increasingly appear willing to use war and conflict as mechanisms for settling disputes. For shipping, that means not only serious safety risks for seafarers and ships, but also the need to assume that this kind of instability may continue well into the future.
He also warned of a broader strategic risk: a world splitting back into blocs in which access to key waterways can no longer be taken for granted. He pointed not only to the Strait of Hormuz and the Black Sea, but also to the Panama Canal, questioning whether open access for everyone can still be assumed.
His underlying message was that shipping has grown used to treating freedom of navigation as a given. That assumption no longer holds. Shipowners will now need to watch these realities much more carefully and ensure they have the expertise in-house to guide them through a more fragmented and uncertain world.
