U.S. container imports are expected to trend slowly downward into the end of 2026, after peaking for the year in September. However, volumes are expected to remain above 2025 levels through December, indicating an unusually long peak shipping season driven by tariff changes and strong consumer demand.

The latest report from the National Retail Federation (NRF) showed 2.37 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) of loaded imports moved through major U.S. container ports in September. That was up 3.4% from August and 12.6% from a year ago.

September was also the third busiest month on record since the report began tracking import activity. Only May 2022 (2.4 million TEUs) and July 2025 (2.39 million TEUs) had higher volumes.

Jonathan Gold, NRF’s vice president for supply chain and customs policy, said U.S. ports have remained busy through the extended peak season this year. He said shipment numbers were still strong as the traditional peak period started to wind down.

Port congestion and labour talks continue to be concerns

The steady flow of containers has added more pressure to port infrastructure, especially on the U.S. West Coast. Some terminals have been busy, leading to longer waits for containers waiting to be moved to rail services.

Gold said most holiday merchandise had arrived in the United States despite these operational challenges. Retailers continue to coordinate with their transportation partners to ensure the remaining shipments are delivered without any further disruption.

Labour negotiations are also hanging over operations at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach. Employers and the International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU) Local 26, which represents watchmen at several container terminals, have agreed to another temporary extension of their contract while negotiations are ongoing.

The deal has now been prolonged three times, with the latest extension until Nov. 20. A permanent settlement has yet to be reached after the previous labour contract expired in July 2025.

Tariff changes accelerate shipping peak 2026

A long import surge is being driven in large part by retailers trying to get ahead of changes in U.S. tariff policy. The most notable instance of frontloading of goods into the country in anticipation of changes in trade policy was in 2025.

Hopes earlier for another long import surge were dashed when the Supreme Court scrapped steep tariffs of the so-called Liberation Day measures.

But new tariffs in the second quarter triggered another wave of imports. The spike was driven by consumer demand amid inflation and began in May and extended into mid-October.

So retailers stocked more shipments in their warehouses than planned, stretching the peak season past the usual.

Imports seen above 2025 levels through Dec

While September was anticipated to be the high point of the year, the NRF report projects a gradual month-over-month drop in the last three months of 2026. But the forecast volumes are higher than the volumes seen in the same month last year.

Final October import figures were not available at the time of the report but were estimated at 2.26 million TEUs, up 9.1 percent year-on-year.

November is forecast to post 2.05 million TEUs, up 1.2% year on year, and December is expected to reach 2.03 million TEUs, up 1.3%.

Based on these projections, the total imports handled by the ports covered in the report are expected to reach about 26 million TEUs for the full year. That would be 2 percent higher than 2025.

Downbeat 1H 2027 import outlook

The picture is not as bright at the beginning of 2027, forecasts indicate that import volumes will be lower in the first three months of the year.

January is forecast to process 2.04 million TEUs, down 3% from January 2026. Volume in February is expected to be 1.89 million TEUs, down 0.5 percent year-on-year.

March’s year-on-year decline is expected to be steeper at 11.2 percent to 1.92 million TEUs.

These forecasts suggest that the strange import patterns seen through much of 2026 could ease in early 2027 as retailers work through tariff-related shipment shifts and the extended peak season ends.