An analysis by Drewry, relayed by Seatrade Maritime, highlights three factors that will determine the health of the tanker market in 2026: OPEC’s production strategy, the evolution of Russian exports, and the security of transits thru the Suez Canal. Three closely linked variables that can shift the sector from oversupply to a severe shortage of vessels in just a few months.
First scenario studied: OPEC maintains its current production levels. In this case, the oil market could find itself with a surplus of about 3 million barrels per day in 2026, a surplus comparable, if not greater, to that observed during the Covid crisis. Onshore storage capacities would quickly become saturated, pushing traders to use VLCCs as floating storage, which would strongly support rates.
Second hypothesis, more explosive: OPEC decides to gradually reopen the taps, further worsening the oversupply. Once again, tankers would be massively mobilized as mobile reservoirs, depleting the available tonnage for “normal” transport and driving freight rates to very high levels.
Third scenario: the cartel finely adjusts its production to seek a balance between prices and volumes. This option would calm volatility, but at the cost of more modest rates for shipowners, in a context where the delivery of new ships – particularly product tankers – is already accelerating. Drewry reminds us that product tanker deliveries nearly tripled in 2025, with another increase expected in 2026, which implies a growth of about 6% in the fleet over two consecutive years.
Geopolitics adds an additional layer of uncertainty. A peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine would profoundly alter current routes: a retreat of long routes for Russian products to distant destinations, a reconfiguration of flows between the Americas, Europe, and Asia, and a possible decrease in “ton-miles” on certain corridors. At the same time, any major incident at Suez – blockage, tensions, or extreme increase in insurance premiums – would redirect part of the traffic around Africa, mechanically boosting the demand for ships.
For traders, majors, and refiners, as well as for logistics providers involved in downstream chains (ports, depots, land transport), 2026 is shaping up to be a year where risk management (time contracts, exposure hedging, route diversification) will be as important as negotiating the price per barrel.
