The major East-West shipping lines are preparing to absorb a new wave of capacity adjustments. On the transpacific, transatlantic, and Asia–Europe routes, shipowners are multiplying departure cancelations (“blank sailings”) to absorb an expected slowdown after the Chinese New Year. Behind this strategy lies a simple logic: to prevent too many ships from sailing underloaded, which would cause spot rates to slip and amplify volatility.
This movement reflects a market that is still extremely sensitive to the slightest variation in volume. After the “front-loading” periods before the Asian holidays, the risk of a lull is classic — but the intensity of the announced cancelations shows how fragile the supply/demand balance remains. Operators are thus trying to defend freight levels by orchestrating a relative scarcity of slots.
The stakes are twofold. First, protect the rates: too much capacity available at the wrong time can trigger a rapid drop in prices, which is then difficult to correct. Next, limit “cascade” congestion: poorly positioned ships or disrupted rotations can create disorder in hubs, leading to delays, waiting peaks, and additional costs for shippers.
For shippers and freight forwarders, the consequence is immediate: planning becomes tricky again. Fewer departures mean fewer options, increased rolling risks, and sometimes a necessity to switch to alternative solutions (different routing, secondary ports, or modal shift in certain areas). In this context, visibility becomes a competitive advantage: those who secure their allocations early reduce exposure to the jolts of a market that, once again, is driven as much by capacity as by demand.
