The military conflict involving Iran, the United States and Israel is beginning to test the outlook that had looked encouraging for the air cargo market at the start of 2026.
According to a March 5 report from Xeneta, the war has sharply altered the conversation around airfreight, shifting attention away from February’s otherwise resilient market performance and toward a new wave of operational and cost uncertainty.
Xeneta’s chief airfreight officer, Niall van de Wouw, said that if February’s numbers were viewed in isolation, the year would appear to have started on a strong note for the industry. But the conflict has changed that outlook and raised the stakes significantly.
The disruption stems from the strikes launched by the U.S. and Israel on Iran on February 28, which have affected both air and ocean logistics networks. Regional hubs such as Doha, Dubai and Abu Dhabi are among the key nodes under pressure.
The effects, however, go beyond the Middle East itself. Xeneta noted that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for about 20% of global oil shipments and 30% of global seaborne oil trade, could lead to higher jet fuel prices if crude continues rising. Brent crude had already moved above $100 per barrel by Monday morning.
If the conflict is short-lived and the Middle East logistics market recovers quickly, the risk of sustained energy-driven inflation in air cargo costs could ease. But if disruption continues, Xeneta believes the consequences could be severe.
Van de Wouw said that in a prolonged scenario, short-term airfreight rates on directly affected corridors could double or even triple. He also noted that while Europe-facing trade lanes may feel the impact most immediately, the United States is not insulated. One example is the India–U.S. East Coast corridor, an important route for pharmaceuticals and retail shipments that would normally transit through the Middle East.
Before the conflict escalated, February data had painted a stronger picture. Global air cargo volumes rose 6% year on year, while the average spot rate increased 5% to $2.58 per kilogram, the first recorded monthly increase since May 2025.
Demand continued to outpace available capacity growth by 4% year on year, pushing Xeneta’s global dynamic load factor — its measure of capacity utilisation — up two percentage points to 62%.
Semiconductor demand continued to support pricing from Northeast Asia to North America, where rates rose 10% year on year to $4.29 per kilogram. By contrast, rates from Southeast Asia to North America fell 6% to $4.75 per kilogram.
From Europe to North America, spot rates stood at $2.96 per kilogram in February, up 21%, representing the largest year-on-year increase among the main air cargo corridors during the month.
Van de Wouw said the air cargo sector is highly skilled at finding solutions during crises, but added that this flexibility comes at a price. The additional cost, he said, will ultimately be borne by cargo owners, though many may be willing to accept it temporarily as long as they can continue serving customers on time.
