Global air cargo demand is expected to grow by 2.6% in 2026, according to IATA, which says the sector is entering a year of stabilisation after demonstrating notable resilience in 2025.
Presenting the association’s economic outlook during the opening plenary of the IATA World Cargo Symposium in Lima, Julia Seiermann, head of industry analysis, said the forecast reflects the sector’s ability to adapt during a turbulent trading environment last year.
In 2025, industry-wide cargo tonne-kilometers (CTK) increased by 3.4%, while available cargo tonne-kilometers (ACTK), a measure of capacity, rose by 3.7% year on year.
For 2026, IATA expects growth to continue, but at a more moderate pace.
According to Seiermann, Asia Pacific and Europe are expected to remain the main growth engines, while North America is likely to continue facing pressure.
Asia Pacific recorded the strongest performance last year, with CTK growth of 8.4%, and is projected to grow by another 6% this year. Africa posted 6% growth in 2025, though that is expected to slow to 2% in 2026.
Europe expanded by 2.9% last year and is forecast to grow by 2% this year. Latin America showed similar momentum, with 2.3% growth in 2025 and an expected 2% rise in 2026.
The Middle East remains far weaker. The region recorded CTK growth of just 0.3% last year, and IATA now expects zero growth in 2026, reflecting the impact of the latest regional conflict.
North America, meanwhile, remains affected by tariff pressures. The region posted a 1.3% decline last year, although the downturn is expected to moderate slightly to a 0.5% decline this year.
Seiermann said the geopolitical situation continues to add uncertainty to the global outlook. Even so, she stressed that air cargo remains more resilient than many broader trade indicators.
That resilience was clearly visible in 2025. According to IATA, the industry helped support economic growth by enabling frontloading into the U.S. ahead of tariff changes, redirecting trade flows toward alternative markets, and carrying strong volumes linked to AI-related goods and e-commerce demand.
Global trade expanded by 2.4% in 2025, while global GDP rose by 3.2%.
Seiermann noted that this trade growth came in above the expectations many institutions had set earlier in the year, underlining the role of air cargo in sustaining global commerce during periods of volatility.
Looking ahead, she said the sector will remain essential in a trade environment still shaped by uncertainty, shifting policy and continued demand for technology-related and e-commerce shipments.
