Missiles may have given way to threats and counter-threats in the Middle East, but for the shipping industry, uncertainty remains as high as ever. Iran has now rejected further talks with the United States, deepening the sense of instability for ship operators and crews caught up in the crisis.
At the start of the weekend, Iran announced that the straits were open to all shipping. However, the US said it would maintain its blockade of Iranian ports, prompting Tehran to accuse واشنطن of breaching the ceasefire.
By Sunday evening, the Iranian government had ruled out renewed negotiations with the Americans. According to the official IRNA news agency, Tehran pointed to excessive demands, unrealistic expectations, constant shifts in stance, repeated contradictions, and the continuing naval blockade, which it views as a violation of the truce.
That leaves logistics managers and vessel operators facing a highly uncertain operating environment. Shipowners are continuing to take a cautious approach and say they need more clarity before resuming transits through the Strait of Hormuz, especially regarding the risk posed by mines.
On Friday, Jakob Larsen, chief safety and security officer at Bimco, warned that the status of mine threats in the Traffic Separation Scheme remains unclear. In his view, shipping companies should consider avoiding the area altogether.
The uncertainty is also being reflected in the container market. Xeneta says the market is currently sending mixed signals to customers, with spot rates easing on Asia-Europe trades while continuing to rise on the Pacific and Atlantic.
According to Peter Sand, chief analyst at Xeneta, that divergence is a clear sign that the disruption caused by the Middle East conflict is far from over. Over the past week, spot rates from Asia to North Europe and the Mediterranean slipped by 4% and 5% respectively. But since the conflict began at the end of February, they are still up 26% and 21%.
On the Asia-US trades, the increases have been far sharper since 28 February: 51% to the US West Coast and 44% to the East Coast. Westbound Atlantic trades have risen 43% over the same period.
Xeneta also noted that the conflict is not the only factor at play. Falling demand and changing capacity levels are also shaping the market. Four-week rolling average capacity data for the week beginning 13 April shows that average capacity fell by 2.3% on Asia-US West Coast and by 9% on Europe-US trades, while Asia-US East Coast capacity increased by 4.4%.
On the European trades, capacity was up 8.5% to North Europe but down 2.1% to the Mediterranean. Xeneta also pointed to seasonal dynamics, noting that softer demand on European trades in the second quarter is not unusual.
Still, Sand stressed that this should not be mistaken for a structural improvement. The core disruption remains unchanged: longer transit times, weaker schedule reliability, and the continuing closure of the Strait of Hormuz. What has changed, he said, is that carriers have found workarounds on certain trades.
His conclusion was clear: any talk of normalisation must take into account that many of the world’s major front-haul trades are still operating at pricing levels consistent with a crisis.
Fuel markets tell the same story. While IFO380 remains elevated globally compared with pre-conflict levels, prices on the US West Coast remain especially high, at roughly double their pre-war level and above $1,000 per tonne, compared with increases of around $200 per tonne in most other regions.
