Prospects for the dry bulk market, and especially the Capesize segment, remain positive in the view of several leading shipowners. Speaking at the Capital Link Singapore Maritime Forum, executives from Berge Bulk and Seanergy Maritime Holding expressed clear confidence in the sector’s outlook.
For James Marshall, founder and chief executive of Berge Bulk, the most important structural shift in recent years has been the emergence of up to 200 million tonnes of bauxite from West Africa. On top of that comes the Simandou iron ore project in Guinea.
Marshall noted that only around 10 cargoes have been moved so far, but by the end of 2026 that figure could rise to 20 million tonnes, before doubling again the following year. By the end of the decade, more than 100 million additional tonnes of iron ore could be exported from West Africa, which he sees as a major structural change in tonne-miles and a very positive development for the market.
Looking at the current year, he said the market should be capable of pushing Capesize earnings above $50,000 a day, with a strong second half also likely.
Stamatis Tsantanis, chairman and chief executive of Seanergy Maritime Holding, also sees the fundamentals as supportive, although he places particular emphasis on supply. He said annual tonne-mile cargo demand growth of 2% to 3%, equivalent to 60 million to 80 million tonnes, is meaningful. But in his view, the main driver for the foreseeable future is the tight supply side.
He pointed out that the Capesize orderbook remains the lowest seen in the last 20 to 25 years. Even though it has increased from about 8% to 12% of the fleet, it is still relatively modest when set against the ageing profile of the existing Capesize fleet.
Marshall was more cautious on that point. He argued that there are still a significant number of ships on order in the larger-size bulk segment, with roughly 275 Capesizes or larger vessels ordered. In the near term, he does not see this as overly problematic, but over a longer period he believes that number of ships would be enough to absorb a project like Simandou, which means caution is still necessary.
The conflict in the Middle East is also being seen as a possible tailwind for dry bulk shipping. Martin Fruergaard, chief executive of Pacific Basin Shipping, said the market initially weakened because participants stepped back amid oil price volatility and uncertainty over energy supply. But that phase now appears to have shifted, with buyers returning to rebuild inventories.
He said the company is seeing a very positive trend in the market, as well as strong derivative pricing for the rest of the year and into 2027, even though the global outlook remains unpredictable.
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz and damage to gas facilities in the Arabian Gulf could, in his view, lead to part of the lost energy demand being replaced by coal.
Seanergy’s Tsantanis shares that view. He said the world has lost around 10 million barrels of oil per day because of the Middle East war, which amounts to roughly 350 million to 400 million barrels since the conflict began. If the crisis lasts through the end of May, he suggested the number could rise even further.
He also pointed to the significant drawdown in global strategic petroleum reserves, arguing that this gives an indication of how serious the world’s energy problems could become.
To fill that gap, especially in Asia, he expects coal-fired energy production to pick up. That could generate between 40 million and 60 million tonnes of additional coal demand in 2026 alone. In his view, that may only be the beginning.
Khalid Hashim, managing director of Precious Shipping, summed up the mood by paraphrasing Mark Twain, saying that the reported demise of “king coal” has been greatly exaggerated over the last decade.
