Air cargo rates are no longer surging the way they were earlier in the conflict, but the market still isn’t anywhere close to normal, according to Freightos.
Prices have started to level off across most major trade lanes, yet ongoing disruption in the Middle East is still shaping how airlines route flights, price capacity, and manage risk.
One of the key factors is the Gulf region itself. Carrier capacity there is gradually coming back, but not evenly. Some airlines have resumed operations, while others are still avoiding the region altogether. That imbalance is keeping space tight and preventing rates from falling back to pre-conflict levels.
Freightos says fuel costs are also playing a role, still sitting roughly 20% higher than before the war, which is feeding directly into pricing. As a result, its global air index remains about 40% higher than both last year and pre-war benchmarks.
The Strait of Hormuz remains a point of uncertainty. Even as oil flows recover, tensions and shifting navigation guidance in the area continue to raise concerns for both shipping and aviation-linked supply chains. At times, vessel movement has been disrupted or redirected, adding another layer of unpredictability for carriers operating nearby.
That said, there are signs of cooling in air freight demand on some key routes. Freightos reported that China–North America rates dropped after the usual mid-year surge tied to retail events, while China–Europe pricing has also stabilised after earlier highs.
But the bigger picture hasn’t changed much: demand has eased slightly, yet capacity constraints and regional instability are still doing most of the work in keeping prices elevated.
On the ocean side, things are actually moving in the opposite direction. Container rates are rising again, driven more by seasonal demand and congestion than fuel costs. Ports in Asia and Europe are feeling the pressure, with delays starting to build and carriers preparing to push through peak season surcharges.
For now, the takeaway is simple: the worst of the price spikes may be over, but the market is still operating in a “high-cost normal” — especially while Middle East capacity continues to recover unevenly and geopolitical risk remains in the background.
