Employment in truck transportation barely changed in July, while the warehousing sector recorded a much sharper decline, according to the latest data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Truck transportation employment increased by roughly 100 positions from June to July. However, revisions to earlier figures changed the picture slightly. The BLS revised June employment downward by 1,500 jobs and May by another 200.
After those adjustments, the number of truck transportation jobs reported for July stood at exactly the same level as February: 1,465,100 positions.
The stability contrasts sharply with employment in warehousing.
Warehouse employment fell by 9,500 jobs in July to 1,834,600. While significant, the decline was not the largest monthly drop recorded over the past year. Warehouse employment fell by 16,000 jobs in September 2025 and another 13,500 in October.
Compared with July 2025, the warehouse sector has now lost 34,700 jobs, representing a 1.8% decline.
Carriers weigh expansion against rising costs
The employment figures have prompted differing views on whether trucking companies are preparing to expand capacity or simply maintain their current operations.
Mazan Danaf, principal economist at Uber Freight, said carriers are “actively seeking to expand fleets to capitalize on rising spot rates and strengthening demand.”
However, he also noted that expanding fleets remains difficult because of a restrictive regulatory environment.
Danaf pointed to some positive developments within the trucking employment data, including growth in long-distance truckload employment for four consecutive months through June.
David Spencer, vice president of market intelligence at Arrive Logistics, offered a different interpretation.
He said relatively stable employment despite rising freight rates suggests that carriers are prioritizing the replacement of aging equipment and necessary driver wage increases rather than pursuing significant fleet expansion at this stage of the market cycle.
Danaf also emphasized that the recovery in trucking employment remains incomplete from a longer-term perspective.
BLS truck transportation employment is currently 3.2% below its 10-year average, he noted, suggesting that a full recovery in trucking capacity could remain a long-term process.
Courier employment rises after major revision
The courier sector added a more significant number of jobs in July.
Employment increased to approximately 1.098 million jobs, up from the revised June figure of 1.0831 million.
However, independent economist Aaron Terrazas cautioned that the apparent improvement was largely influenced by a major downward revision to June employment. The current June estimate of 1.0831 million jobs is well below the original estimate of 1.0972 million.
Terrazas also pointed to downward revisions affecting warehouse employment for both May and June.
Although July’s 1.834 million warehouse jobs remained above the levels recorded during the first three months of the year, the revisions have weakened the case for a summer recovery.
“Revisions have erased any sense of a summer rebound in warehousing employment,” Terrazas said.
Trucking capacity faces additional pressure
Spencer does not expect significant employment-driven capacity growth in trucking in the near term.
“Capacity remains constrained as carriers struggle with high fuel prices and a shifting regulatory landscape,” he said.
He pointed to continued regulatory enforcement and the recent Supreme Court ruling on broker liability as examples of the challenges facing carriers and drivers.
Insurance costs and availability, along with carrier safety ratings, could create additional restrictions on capacity in the coming months.
These pressures could make it more difficult for carriers to expand even if freight demand and spot rates continue to improve.
Rail employment continues to decline
Rail employment also weakened in July.
The BLS revised rail employment downward for both May and June, while the July figure of 149,300 jobs was 400 below June.
Although monthly changes in rail employment tend to be relatively small, the declines have accumulated over time.
Rail employment is now 5,100 jobs below its level a year earlier, representing a 3.2% decline.
Trucking wages edge higher
Average hourly earnings for production and nonsupervisory employees in truck transportation rose slightly to $32.35 in June, with wage data running on a one-month lag.
Despite the increase, the figure remained below April’s average of $32.38.
Overall, the July employment data point to a trucking sector that is largely holding its ground rather than expanding rapidly, while warehousing continues to lose jobs.
“The mixed employment trends reflect freight companies’ cautious approach to the current market cycle, balancing stronger demand and higher rates against fuel costs, regulatory uncertainty, equipment replacement needs and rising operating expenses,”
