ZF Commercial Vehicle Solutions is taking a more optimistic view of the U.S. truck market after stronger-than-expected demand prompted the German supplier to raise its sales outlook for next year by roughly $50 million.
Speaking at a media briefing ahead of IAA Transportation in Hanover, Germany, Fabian Schlegel, ZF CVS’ global head of sales and head of the EMEA region, said the revised outlook was agreed with Dirk Wohltmann, head of ZF CVS North America, during a meeting with executive management in Switzerland the previous week.
The stronger outlook comes as fleets face an increasingly urgent need to replace aging equipment. Schlegel said years of cautious purchasing have left trucks and trailers significantly older, while accumulated mileage is now pushing operators toward new investment.
“What gives me confidence: trucks and trailers aged brutally over the last years because everyone was cautious on replacement,” Schlegel said. “Mileage is there; trucks are not standing still. You come into the need to replace. Not a bonanza, but a nice increase.”
ZF had originally expected the U.S. market to remain flat this year. Instead, demand has accelerated sharply since the second quarter, Schlegel said. In response, ZF production facilities brought forward as much as two months of output to ensure customers could be supplied.
U.S. demand moves ahead of expectations
ZF’s North American business generated $1.32 billion in revenue last year, representing growth of 23.7%, according to Wohltmann. Based in Auburn Hills, Michigan, he also oversees research and development activities for the Americas.
He described the current U.S. market as steadily improving rather than booming.
“Good trend upward,” Wohltmann said. “Freight is demanding. Fleets starting to update equipment. Uncertainty is the word of the year. Not a tremendous exploding market a healthy, forward-looking one.”
Tariffs and elevated diesel prices remain challenges, but Wohltmann said neither has stopped fleets from moving toward investment. Higher fuel costs, in particular, can strengthen the business case for technologies designed to improve efficiency.
“Challenging, but the market held for a while and now it’s at the point of invest. High diesel even fuels the drive for efficient solutions,” he said.
Among ZF’s products targeting the North American market is its PowerLine eight-speed automatic transmission, produced at the company’s Gray Court, South Carolina, facility. The transmission is already available with Paccar and is expected to become available soon with Daimler Truck North America.
ZF is also promoting an electric trailer based on its AxTrax driven axle. The system uses regenerative braking to recharge batteries, power a refrigerated trailer unit and provide additional propulsion assistance to the truck-trailer combination.
The resulting fuel savings vary according to the application, Wohltmann said, but can rise well above 10%, with the strongest use case approaching 20%.
New business supports cash generation
ZF Commercial Vehicle Solutions has secured more than €5 billion ($5.7 billion) in lifetime business so far in 2026, according to ZF’s Sept. 15 IAA press release.
Schlegel said the division’s customer-acquisition win rate is above 90%, reflecting a strategy that puts profitability ahead of simply expanding volumes or market share.
“We don’t take business at a bad margin,” he said.
The broader ZF Group has also strengthened its financial position. Adjusted free cash flow more than doubled during the first half of the year, reaching €989 million ($1.13 billion), compared with €465 million ($530 million) during the same period a year earlier, according to ZF’s July 30 half-year results.
Schlegel said the improved cash generation enabled ZF to repay an initial tranche of debt during the first half, ahead of the company’s plans for the second half.
TraXon Hybrid turns toward Europe and Japan
ZF made TraXon Hybrid one of its key technology showcases at IAA. The hybrid transmission is based on the TraXon 2 automated manual transmission and incorporates components from ZF’s electrified drivetrain platform.
According to Schlegel, ZF has already sold more than 1.5 million TraXon transmissions, all for the heavy-duty vehicle segment.
The company had also been discussing hybridization with a lead U.S. customer. However, that project has now been put on hold amid the current market and regulatory environment.
“Leaving politics aside: we had a lead customer in the U.S. very interested,” Schlegel said. “Given the current frame, the U.S. hybridization project is for the moment paused.”
ZF is instead concentrating its immediate TraXon Hybrid efforts on Europe and Japan, where Schlegel said the company is “on the way to sign first customer contracts.”
The technology received an additional boost shortly afterward. Five days after the media briefing, TraXon Hybrid was named winner of the Truck Innovation Award 2027 by the International Truck of the Year jury at IAA Transportation, Automotive World reported.
In the United States, Wohltmann sees another route toward hybridization through electrified trailers rather than a fully hybrid tractor.
An electric trailer paired with a conventional diesel tractor, he said, “is already an entry to a hybrid setup.”
The commercial argument will ultimately depend on measurable operating savings.
“If we can show TCO improvement and ROI around year two, it will get interest in the U.S.,” Wohltmann said.
